email05 eng

Greenwood's old friend, Ron living in Manhattan Beach and Greenwood living in Seven Mile Beach has been exchanging their views on various aspects of the world through email over more than 10 years. With the permission of Ron, a record of mails exchanged in 2005 was compiled in chronological order.

2005/1/1 0:11
Happy New Year
Dear Connie and Ron,

I wish both of you a Happy New Year.

At the end of the year, I edited our e-mails into year 2004 record.

I hope nothing trouble some.

Greenwood

Today, I have received your CD. What kind of software you have used for making this CD. I couldn't read it with my VAIO and Dell Dimension 8400. But luckily, my old Dell 4100 now used as live camera could read it. Probably it was loaded with Adaptec's software. If you have finished it as readable for other software, I could have read it with my new machine without problem. Anyway, I transferred your files to my new machine via portable HD.

I have found two very interesting photos. First one is GM's gas generator. Until now, I believed that only Europe and Japan used wood chips for driving automobile during World War II. This is a new finding and I would like to comment in my paper using your photo. Second one is a completed new Opera House in Copenhagen. During our visit, it was still under construction. I heard that the designer is the same man who designed famous Opera House in Sydney. What a difference.

Almost all photos in St. Petersburg were wonderful. After touching up with PhotoShop, the qualities of the images were greatly enhanced. Tower Bridge at Night is beautiful. After finishing writing my Memoir, I would like to edit some of your best photos and present them as one of my travel pages reported by Ron.

I found that once I have started writing my Memoir in the end of last year, I couldn't stop it. Because, in every morning, I get up with many old memories which I have forgotten. It takes whole day to write them down. And then in the next morning... Probably it continues another month. I 'm afraid.

I had it set up to allow me to use CD's like floppies. The way I had set it up did not give me the option of "finalizing" the CD so it could be read in any computer. It claimed that all computers with CD-R or CD-RW drives could read it.

It looks as though they are over-confident in the readable department. I'm glad your old Dell could read it. I've switched my DirectCD program to always give me the option of finalizing the CD before ejecting and will always try to do so in the future when making CD's for others.

The gas generator was startling to me too. It did not necessarily come from the US, either Opel or Vauxhall in England could have been the source. Unfortunately, I did not study the badge and the fine print is not readable. My impression of the words below the GM badge and above GAS GENERATOR could be German (or Danish).

Global climate change is still producing record weather. During the last 15 days LA has received almost 40 cm of rain (more than our usual quantity for the year). So far, in the season from July, we have had almost 60 cm; normally at this time the total is 12 cm. One mountain location has just received 76 cm in 5 days . There was one big mudslide up the coast from us which caused fatalities, but our storms do not have high winds, so damage is not too bad (unlike typhoons or hurricanes). I think there is a very good chance that we will have a record year for rainfall if things continue as they have been.

I hope the damage from the typhoons you experienced has been repaired. Our new roof did have a leak, but the contractor seems to have fixed it after two repairs! We are certainly testing his work.

Tuesday, January 18, 2005 10:53 AM
EDUCATION SYSTEMS -TEACHERS' UNIONS

Dear Greenwood,

One of my conservative, retired-engineer friends has been looking into the relative results of the education systems in different countries. He realized that he had no idea about the way other countries' education systems are organized, how decisions are made, etc.

In particular, he asked me about He wondered, for example, what role the unions play in Japan. In the US they are very powerful and take a very active role in the political system - backing politicians who are sympathetic and opposing others. In California at the moment, our Governor (Gubernator) Arnold Schwarzenegger has announced a campaign to change the way teachers are paid and promoted, etc. This is strongly resisted by the teachers and there could be a huge fight about it.

In turn, of course, this will have a very big influence on how our schools continue to be run. Here is the pertinent part of his letter:

"Specifically, does Japan have teachers unions that have the same control of schools and teaching and influence on elections that ours have? Do they have anything that approximates our teachers unions influence on the process.

I occasionally see comparisons of test results in various countries, but I don't recall anything on school administration. In my earlier comparison of public education now and as I experienced it in my school days, I overlooked teacher's unions and their resistance to anything that will make teaching more demanding, difficult or accountable. "

We'd like to hear how schools are administered in Japan. If you are interested further we could have a continuing discussion. I'd be happy to give you the addresses of our group so you could participate directly if you wish to do so.

With best regards,

Ron

You have given me a relatively difficult question to answer correctly. I have many opinions on our educational system, but I am afraid, that opinion is not based on an accurate knowledge about our system and is influenced by
media's opinion.

Anyway, I would try to answer on your question:

the influence of teachers' unions in the political process.

Yes we have teachers' unions. I do not know whether we had such organization before 1945. But after 1945, under the influence of new constitution, we had very strong teachers' unions. The union covered most of the government-operated primary, middle and high schools. They always opposed the policy of Ministry's of Education at any time. They supported special left wing political parties called Socialist Party. They are against to hoist national flag of Japan in schools.

But after the collapse of Soviet Union, the Socialist Party lost support of public and disappeared. After the collapse of the left wing party, it seems me that they are coming back to neutral position now.

comparisons of test results in various countries,

I think the activity of teachers' unions had no direct relation to the international competition on test results. Under strong left wing teachers union, our student showed highest performance in the international arena.
But their performance greatly degraded recently and we are chasing Korea now. My observation tells me that the policy of Ministry's of Education has direct influence on student performance, as Ministry specifies contents of education and time to spend in a week in detail. If teacher does not comply with the policy, they might be in a difficult situation. In other words, teachers union lost power against Ministry of Education recently. Under the democratic government, the policy of Ministry of Education follows public opinion. Ten years ago, public opinion was to ease educational system and release young from the severe competition among themselves. The Ministry of Education restricted the amount of content of education and time to spend. I see recent lower performance is the result of those processes.

I would rather decline to continue this discussion as I do not know in detail in this subject and my opinion might be miss leading.

Best regard,
Greenwood

Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2005 8:54 AM
Re: EDUCATION SYSTEMS -TEACHERS' UNIONS - AND ENGINEERING TEAMS

Dear Greenwood,

Thank you very much for such a clear reply to what is a very difficult subject in both countries. I respect your wish not to continue - it may become controversial between members of our US discussion group also.

Like you, I confess ignorance about many aspects of education, but it certainly is an ever- popular topic of conversation.
You may be interested in another matter which bears on the engineering world. Some years ago Fluor closed it's London office due to the British Government's penalties for offices in central London. Instead of opening another office in outer London, as most of our competitors did, Fluor moved to a distant location more than an hour from the closest part of London and over two hours from the furthest part.

I happened to be on assignment there just after the move. Most of the employees were still there, but many were looking for other jobs. By the time I left, more than 50% of the staff had quit, including many senior and key people. The office has never really recovered.

A few days ago I read an opinion column in the L A Times. Part of it dealt with the space shuttle. In 2001 Boeing moved the Space Shuttle engineers from Southern CA to Texas - to cut costs. Apparently 80% elected to stay here. You can imagine the impact on the team; far worse than Fluor's office in London. Two years later, of course, we had the disastrous Columbia explosion. What a price to pay for cost cutting!

The world seems to be changing in very depressing ways.

With best regards,
Ron

2005/1/22 12:14
Re: EDUCATION SYSTEMS -TEACHERS' UNIONS - AND ENGINEERING TEAMS

Dear Ron,

You have touched another important subject. It is loosing key person from Engineering Firm. It is what I am writing in my memoir now. The total volume of my memoir already counts 300kb volume. It may reach 500kb I am afraid.

Because of poor educational system in recent 10 years in Japan, capability of new graduates in building process models on computer were greatly degraded. And skilled old engineers are reaching the time to retire. I don't know how to manage people to complete current projects awarded to Chiyoda.

Also, as mention by you, loosing capable personnel greatly reduce performance of engineering firm. Chiyoda lost many capable and brilliant engineers because of dominance of no technical people controlling Chiyoda in 1990s.

This is what I am writing in my memoir. But it must be taken care of not insulting individuals to avoid unnecessary exchange of criticism. I decided to use fictious names when I call certain individuals who once was in a very responsible position in Chiyoda.

Boeing is in trouble in those days. I assume that the problem is attributable to management quality. European supplier seems ahead of Boing now.

Saturday, January 29, 2005 11:23 AM
CALIFORNIA SECESSION

Subject: CALIFORNIA SENT THIS SECESSION LETTER TO GEORGE BUSH TODAY! (Collection of Jokes No.140)

Thank you for "CALIFORNIA SECESSION". I enjoyed it very much and circulated it with my friends.

Please forgive me raising one question. It is about a word, "Old Miss'". Does the word means "University of
Mississippi"? There is another word, "Ole Miss". What compare both?

Dear Greenwood,

I'm glad you enjoyed the joke. Yes Old or Ole Miss does refer to the university. "Ole" is the way the word sounds when pronounced by people from Mississippi. When used by someone from outside the south it has a slightly sneering, condescending tone - implying that the school is not any good academically, e.g. compared with Harvard.

Ron

Don't forget to take extra beer on vacation.

Ron
A STRAND BREWERS CLUB RECOMMENDATION - J (Collection of Jokes No.141)

One of the world's great competitions - been held for millennia.

Hard to believe, but another year has passed. Once again, it's time for the Darwin Award
Nominees. Never ceases to amaze me.....

Saturday, February 12, 2005 8:55 AM
Re: MANY TOPICS

Dear Greenwood,

Please excuse my long silence, broken only by our discussion of schools. This year my idleness in retirement has been catching up with me.

As you know, I've been doing much maintenance about the house. That is finally done for this year. (Just as well since our rainfall has been very large and continues (another 30 mm today and still raining). Soon, I'll have to get at the garden.

My main problems have been with organizations. In our homebrew club, after years of successful dodging responsibility, they took revenge by electing me President this year. Oddly, I do not have so many things to do as the other officers, but a much larger helping of responsibility. Did I retire for this?

In our local group of Amnesty International, I hold only a minor office, but the Coordinator is often busy and it falls to me to replace him during his absence. Once again - more responsibility.

Finally, when I retired, Connie convinced me to do some civic duties. I volunteered to be the Manhattan Beach member of the Board of Directors of our local Vector Control Agency (mostly mosquitoes and Africanized Honey Bees). Now that too is beginning to catch up with me. Presidents are appointed in rotation by seniority. This year I'm Vice-President (with
only responsibility to back-up the President), but next year I rotate into the President role for a year.

So, as you see, I'm almost busier than when I was working.

Enough excuses.

On the computer front our big news is that my wife, Connie, finally has a computer of her own. (For reference her email is
. My oldest son built himself a new computer capable of doing the games he plays and gave his old one to his mother as a birthday present. She likes it because it is set up very simply and is easy to use. (I'm afraid engineers make things far too complicated.

So far my computer auto backup system is going very well. (We'll see how good it is if my hard drive fails). Dropping your HD must have been very worrying. I still use CD's as another level of backup for crucial data files - using the CD drive like a floppy. Every now and again I use Norton's "Ghost" to make a whole C:\ backup in DOS - that's also much easier with my 160 GB external hard drive. It's big enough to keep the old backup while making a new one.

I finally also got around to visiting your HP. The content continues to amaze me. Thank you for updating our correspondence - it looks good. I also was fascinated by the voyage of Scheherazade. That was quite an adventure; I'm glad the weather smiled on you, especially at that time if year.

Most freeways in the urban parts of California have extra lanes added in the center for cars with at least two people - the so-called "Car Pool Lanes". These are what your friend retired from Toyota was discussing. When hybrid cars came along they passed a law allowing single drivers in hybrids to use the lanes.

This is now under attack for several reasons. In some places the car pool lanes are also congested, so there is no more room in them (this was even before the hybrid law). Some car manufacturers, mostly American are coming out with "Hybrids" that are really only a marketing ploy. If they add an electric motor and a slightly bigger battery and generator they can call it a hybrid, but improved economy is marginal at best. So, the status of the law is quite obscure right now. (Even though the Prius is a great success with a long waiting list to buy, there are still very few Hybrids on our roads. The increasing size and weight of all the other vehicles, especially the SUV's, far outweighs the economy of the few hybrids).

At the moment, President Bush is riding high. Three successful elections in the US, Palestine and Iraq have given him what he calls "Political Capital" to spend. He has just announced a budget which slashes government spending on civilian programs and is planning to begin "reforming" Social Security (in most people's minds that means "start to dismantle it"). Conservative people here would seek to get the Federal Government completely out of all social programs. I believe they see a way to achieve this, now that GWB is re-elected with larger majorities in both house of Congress.

The Democrats seem very confused. They are largely arguing among themselves how to prevent the Republicans becoming a permanent majority, like Mr. Koizumi's LDP (is that the correct initials for your government party?). However, it won't be plain sailing. Many of his proposals are opposed by moderates in his own party. In some cases Democrats and Republicans may unite to oppose him - for example on reductions in farm subsidies.

In the meantime, the US is largely tied down in Iraq and it seems we will be so for many years. I suspect this has given both North Korea and Iran the opportunity to develop and start to build a nuclear bomb capability (note; I believe there is still no proof that N. Korea has nuclear bombs - it could still be bluffing). Both are very dangerous, but Korea especially so - in my mind. We are told that, if N. Korea actually has a nuclear war capacity, there would be tremendous pressure in S. Korea and Japan to develop the same. What do you think?

Enough for one letter - bad business practice to include multiple topics!

With my best regards,
Ron

2005/2/17 22:50
Re: MANY TOPICS

Dear Ron,

Thank you for sending me two jokes. I have enjoyed Darwinian Awards most. I included them into my HP and made a link to Darwinian Awards site. As I spent most of my time for writing Memoir in the last month, I couldn't find time to edit your travel film. I will do it some time in the next month. I am thinking to wait more time to publish last 10-year portion of my
Memoir since it is premature and I am afraid that might hurt some people.

In my business trip, I missed to take photos some times. Those places are Dana Point, Mission San Juan Capistrano, Marina Del Rey, and Muscat Oman. I decided to link to official site and link directly to the jpg photo and show them in my page.

Congratulations for your promotion to the top of the club. I was convinced by the fact that you were elected as President of your homebrew club. Your members have done the right selection. I am certain that you can make them happy. I didn't know that you were also active in Amnesty International. You are a very politically correct person.

My wife stopped me going into civic duties. Because, she afraid that I might loose her face by behaving incorrectly. I understand Connie have full confidence in you. What activity is yours in Vector Control Agency? In our case, control of mosquito and cockroach are individual's activities. We do not have Africanized Honey Bees. But probably European Bees imported for Tomato pollination might become troublesome in the near future.

Although it is slow, but our LDP is gradually declining. No one knows when, but I hope the time of change over is coming. South Korean is very afraid of North Korea. Because they are living next door and south have many things to
loose.

Do you remember that we discussed about Dr. Colin Campbell's prediction on oil reserves? Recently, I found a site about ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas). Chiyoda came back into full operation. They were awarded two Shell's LNG projects and one Exxon's LNG project. It seems that Campbell's prediction is almost correct.

February 16, 2005 was an effective day for Kyoto Protocols. One day before that, I had a chance to directly talk with Director-General, Dr. T. Matsuno of Frontier Research Center for Global Change. I was fascinated the
simulation result after running world's fastest parallel processor called The Earth Simulator. I found the machine is in operation very close to my sailing boat. A 50m×65m×17m sized machine can run on the top speed of 40Tflops. But it consumes 10MW including air conditioning unit.

I am still relying on manual backup to portable HD.

Best regards,

Greenwood

2005/2/17 23:28
Norton Internet Security

Dear Ron,

After sending my previous mail, I found that I couldn't open HP of your club. It seems that Norton Internet Security blocked it. After switching off such services, I could see your smiling face on the presidential position. I voted not list your site as harmful.

Regards,

Greenwood

Dear Greenwood,

I think the Vector Control District is a very American type of organization. Our particular district was founded in 1944, originally covering a small area of less than 15 sq. km. It has gradually expanded and now covers roughly 1500 sq. km with a population of more than 3 million people. We are charged with the control of (mostly insect) vectors which spread disease - basically part of public health services.

Many parts of Los Angeles used to be malarious due to suitable habitats for anopheles and other mosquitoes. Mosquito control remains a very large part of our duties - we still spray and otherwise treat a very large number of sites here. By and large this is very effective - it is quite rare to be bitten by a mosquito here. The cost to do our work is surprisingly small. Last year our tax was $4 per household - about the cost of one can of bug spray!

Over the years we have added many other insect vectors (and pests) to our duties. As you mention, you are concerned by the advent of European Bees. These are the ones which used to be our normal bees and are comparatively tame and peaceful. Africanized bees were imported to Brazil many decades ago - in the hope they would be more efficient than European bees in hot climates. Since then they have spread north, finally reaching Southern CA a few years ago.

Don't be too worried about the European bees - they are much tamer than the Africanized variety. If you disturb a European hive you'll be attached by a few bees who will chase you a hundred meters or so. Africanized bees are much more aggressive - hundreds of bees will attack and have often chased people over 0.5 km. Every year a number of people are killed by these bees in the US. The bees have been in LA for over 5 years and we are beginning to get used to them. A few years ago our district got 8, 000 to 10,000 bee calls a year; last year there were 7,000 with a downward trend.

The latest vector-borne disease here is West Nile Virus, spread by another type of mosquito. This disease started in New York a few years ago and has been traveling across the US ever since - largely spread by infected migrating birds who pass the disease to mosquitoes and then to us. Last year was our first year; only a few infected birds arrived. We think this year will be our most severe. After that most people will be immune and infections should decrease. In 2004 there were 771 human cases in CA, with 23 deaths. This year we expect thousands of cases with many more deaths.

There are several other diseases we guard against, including several forms of Encephalitis, Lyme disease, Dengue fever and also a number of animal diseases. We try to monitor and control the vectors which transmit these.

I've found the district very interesting. My father spent his career at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and I worked there in summer vacations, so I'm very familiar with some of the things the district does. Its good to have some useful role even in retirement.

With my best regards,

Ron

Sent: Monday, March 14, 2005 1:23 PM
Subject: WALT DISNEY CONCERT HALL

Dear Greenwood,

I thought you might enjoy the pictures I took yesterday in WDCH. (Cameras are not allowed, but with the advent of cell phone-cameras they have not been able to enforce the ban).

I was discrete and careful not to draw attention to myself. The small size and complete silence of my new Pentax digital camera were very helpful. Unfortunately, many of the pictures were blurred by camera shake. I've picked the best to send. One is a composite panorama of three pictures. The Pentax came with a pretty good panorama program. Sometimes the boundary of the sections is invisible, which is not the case here, I'm afraid.

We continue to visit the hall regularly and have grown very familiar with its fine acoustics - It rather spoils us for the less vivid sound in other auditoria. There is no question that the work of acoustician Yasuhisa Toyota is remarkably good. The architecture of Frank Gehry is well known and still is impressive after a couple of years.

Yesterday's performance was conducted by the Spanish conductor Rafael Fruhbeck de Burgos and included a fine version of de Falla's Suites from the Three Cornered Hat.

With best regards,

Ron

WALT DISNEY CONCERT HALL

Dear Ron,

Thank you for interesting photos of Disney Hall. The hall seems spectacular. I have tried to take similar one in a hall in Tokyo. But suspicious watchdog found me just a second earlier than I push button. I didn't know that the Pentax has a panorama function to composite several pictures. Probably it can help me in taking panoramic pictures from the top of the mountain. I like clear sound of Falla's Suites from the Three Cornered Hat. I still keep an analog disk.

By the way, I have acquired iPod. It can house 7,500 musical files. It is almost 500 times of that of Cassette Tape. I think it is a direct descendent of Walkman, but Sonny missed to market it in first place. I think now Sonny is not under control of engineers.

I understand that you have several problems like malarious, Africanized bees and West Nile Virus. Luckily, we do not have such problems here. European Bees are harmless for human and they can only survive in cool places like Hokkaido. But professors are concerned a loss of Biological Diversity due to the spread of such new species. Any way, I agree that you enjoy such useful role in retirement.

I am sorry for not responding earlier. The reason is simple. Although you cannot see in my English page, but I am currently splitting several Japanese pages of Memos, Quotations and Library into 3,000 independent pages. This change consumes lots of work.

Best Regards,
Greenwood

Friday, April 08, 2005 8:53 PM
Re: Great Photos

Dear Ron,

Thank you.

The mountain in 4th photo is Mt. Fuji, but I have never seen such a big cloud.

And the last one!!

Greenwood

Monday, April 11, 2005 9:39 AM
Re: Great Photos

Dear Greenwood,

My son, Peter, the photographer, thinks the last is a fake. I'm not sure if it's real, either.

I visited your homepage. I am amazed how well you have updated it. It must have been done since I last visited because it told me I had visited just once.

The links are very helpful. I especially liked your Gallery. For example - it was fascinating to switch from the painting to the photograph of the Montelbaans Tower. For a moment I was confused by the picture of Mt. Omuroyama. Finally, I realized the grass was brown because you are just emerging from winter. Here we are used to green grass in winter which turns
brown in the summer!

Last week Connie and I finally went to look at the blooms of wildflowers which are especially good this year following our near-record rainfall (currently over 80 cm). Unfortunately, it is already late (many of the best blooms have gone) and the day turned cloudy and windy. Later, it actually rained and we got wet and miserable.

Luckily we were able to take a few pictures. With the photo processing possible in digital, I managed to get a half-way good appearance. I'm attaching them here.

The first two pictures are from the CA Poppy Reserve. This is about an hour north of us, in what is called the "High Desert". Normally this looks much like the Mojave desert you traversed on your Route-66 trip. With sun it would have been spectacular.

The next picture is a three-picture panorama of the Leone valley, a high valley in the low mountains just south of the preserve. In the background the hills contain the famous San Andreas Fault. The green grass was almost like England. It won't last long since it is unlikely to rain much now.

Finally, we visited an old town called Acton (named after the London suburb) intending to see their famous lilac bushes in bloom. Unfortunately it was too late. However, since this town is quite close to LA and has just had a freeway exit created nearby, I took some pictures before it gets "Developed" with the usual urban sprawl. The tractor and farm implement are real and have been left by the side of the road as a whimsical decoration. No signs or notices, just the hardware. I wonder if a farmer left them there years ago or whether they are part of a planned "Rural" exhibit. In any case, a bit of rural America close to the LA metropolis.

I hope they are interesting. With best regards,

Ron

2005/4/12 18:22
Great Photos

Dear Ron,

Thank you for your magnificent photos.

Although, the weather is not fine but your pictures gave me an impact. I heard many time that wild flowers in US are magnificent. Finally, I have seen them in the two photos of CA Poppy Reserve.

A panorama picture of San Andreas Fault was also interesting. This time, the picture looks seamless.

The last one looks like a real one. Completely rusted machinery looks beautiful and matches the atmosphere of the street.

I distributed your Great Photos to my friends and received many appreciations.

I am still busy in splitting the library list, quotations and memos of Japanese pages into 2,500 independent pages and reorganizing new links to those pages. It may last more few weeks.

I have added two more pages about recent visit to Supreme Court and our travel to various places.

Best Regards,

Greenwood

Tuesday, May 10, 2005 8:03 AM
ENVIRONMENT & OTHER MATTERS

Dear Greenwood.

Last week I participated in a new activity for me. I was part of a group of scientists and engineers from the Union of Concerned Scientists who visited members of our State Government in Sacramento (where the State Government resides). The UCS is an organization much concerned with Global Warming and other technical threats to the world.

They believe that the Federal Government, under George Bush, will be of no help in environmental matters and our efforts are best directed to State Governments. So, the organization gathered a large delegation of over 40 people, mostly scientists, but with a few engineers, to go to the State Government and discuss global warming with both friendly and unfriendly representatives.

As is usual in these matters, the lawmakers themselves were busy with the legislative process; we spoke to a variety of aides who are the people who work for the lawmakers and advise them on specialized subjects. In many cases they have people who specialize in technical or environmental subjects. In a number of cases we spoke with their Chief of Staff.

We started with the most sympathetic representatives. They welcomed our efforts, learned the latest scientific facts from researchers who study the subject and advised us on the approach to take with less sympathetic offices. I was relieved to find that my local representative in the House of Representatives was much more concerned about the environment than we had believed. We ended up with an aide to one of the most conservative members. I'm sure we didn't change his mind, but the meeting was cordial and we discovered quite a bit of common ground.

Strangely, more and more very conservative people in this country are becoming interested in conservation and alternative fuels - not because of the environment, but for National Security. Relying on the Middle East for energy is not a good idea. So, perhaps we may finally get back to the bipartisan interest in the environment which used to exist here. (The US Environmental Protection Agency was established by President Nixon, along with other fundamental environmental laws).

I checked out the ASPO site to which you kindly referred me. Interestingly, they had an update by C.J. Campbell of his book's production forecasts. It's amazing how small his revisions are. I was also fascinated by some of the links to many other sites which have energy-related information. Especially relevant was the Energy Bulletin site. They had an article from the (London) Times stating that there are early signs that the Gulf Stream may be weakening. This could greatly cool Western Europe (as much as 5 - 8 degs C).

I do hope your Earth Simulator (10MW) does not contribute too heavily to global warming!

On a happier note for Japan and the US, today's LA paper ( www.latimes.com ) has a long news story about the cooperation of Mitsubishi with Boeing on their new 787 Dreamliner. It seems that sales of Airbus' A 380 have been disappointing, while the fuel-efficient 787 already has 237 orders. Mitsubishi has a team of more than 100 engineers in Boeing's design center working on the design of the wing, which will be built in Japan. Mitsubishi is also contributing to the financing. Along with Kawasaki and Fuji, about 35% of the plane will be built in Japan.

It reminds me of our ill-starred venture together in Iran. I'm glad to hear that Chiyoda is riding the LNG wave. Does that make your pension more secure? My only connection with Fluor these days is health insurance. I'm glad that Fluor, also, is in better financial health; it makes it less likely they will cut costs at the expense of retirees like me.

There are many pictures of our recent homebrewers festival on the club site. We were in a new, much nicer location. My pictures are on the bottom of page 5 and all of pages 6 & 7.

With best regards,

Ron

2005/5/14 10:30
ENVIRONMENT & OTHER MATTERS

Dear Ron,

After a hard work of more than a month, I almost completed restructuring of my web site. Now I have more than 4,000 html pages. Most of them are in Japanese. If you print them, you might loose more than 10,000 papers of A4 size.

There are no big difference in English pages though.

Now, I can find a time for editing your Baltic cruise.

My wife suddenly decided to visit France in June. I will accompany her as a shauffeur. We will stay in Paris for a week and then drive around country side. I am not sure where we will visit except a place where I whished to visit once. It is a village called Alise- Sainte-Reine in Cote-d' Or. It was called Alesia in Roman times.

Your activity in a group of scientists and engineers from the Union of Concerned Scientists is most interesting. As you pointed out depletion of oil might change political incentives first than environmental concerns does. As depletion of oil hit us earlier than climate change destroy our food supply system.

A month ago, I was asked to make a lecture in our Probus Club in Kamakura. In that lecture, I introduced Dr. C. J. Campbell's view. But I can't forget a welcoming smile when I added that we can survive with solar energy only, while maintaining current living standard. According to Science and Technology Agency in Japan, If we install, wind mills along Japanese coast line of 6,000km length with the width of 3 km, we can obtain 28% of power generated in 1997. According to my calculation, we can obtain 12% of power from forest covering 66% of Japanese land. The rest of 60% of power could easily obtain from Solar Cell. No coal burning, nuclear fission or fusion technology is needed.

According to my observation, Chiyoda's recent success is attributable to a single person who dominated in LNG business in Mitsubishi Corporation. When Mitsubishi corporation first planned to develop Brunei LNG together with Shell, Chiyoda made a joint venture project with Bechtel. But JGC offered 33% lower offer than Chiyoda/Bechtel offer. Mitsubishi asked to lower to that price but we rejected that request. Since then, a responsible person at that time always guided Shell to make order to JGC. But, his position was in danger after top management decided to rescue Chiyoda from financial
troubles. He left Mitsubishi and now he is with Kellogg Japan.

Now JGC is loosing momentum.

I saw your pictures in your site. You look happily.

Best Regards,

Greenwood

Dear Greenwood,

As you know, I've been a member of Amnesty International for many years. Since 911 I've been watching US actions with mounting concern. In internal communications, Amnesty International has been outspoken for years about the abuses of human rights by our government. Many of our actions in recent years have been about US policies.

Over the years the worst actions taken by the worst human right oppressors included indefinite imprisonment without charges, torture, murder in jails, "disappearances" kangaroo courts, etc., etc. The US is now seen to have done and is continuing to do all these things, while maintaining a falsely pious "Liberty" campaign. This hypocrisy will set back the cause of human rights for at least the rest of our lifetimes and probably much longer.

AI has finally become exasperated with the present "Regime" in Washington. Their 2005 annual report singles out the US above all other countries for its criticism. My own view is that they are being too mild. We not only have been acting in ways that the world's worst despots have done, but we have undermined the whole world's respect for human rights. Its noticeable that, whenever a despotic regime is criticized these days, they point the finger at us and say "We're doing nothing that the US is not doing worse".

The 49% of US citizens who voted against George Bush will continue to fight his belligerent policies at every turn. I hope the bankruptcy of his "philosophy" will become apparent to more of our citizens and we'll see a change of heart in our next federal elections in 2006. Already, the polls show a gradual erosion of support for our colonial war in Iraq (Bush's rating on Iraq was 45% in January; in May the same poll was 37%) . It took 10 years for public revulsion to force the US out of Vietnam; the Iraq debacle seems to be on track to the same destination. I hope it happens quicker this time.

I'm sorry for the angry tone of this letter, but I cannot restrain myself in the face of such despicable behavior. Do not judge the US by the present gang in the White House.

Ron

2005/6/3 21:26
US HUMAN RIGHTS DISGRACE

Dear Ron,

I understand your concern on your Government behavior. I believe in the long run, democracy has restitutive force to come back to more moderate state in protecting human right etc.

As you have concerns on your government, I also have different concerns on our government behavior in forgetting responsibility of our leaders who guided Japan into the World War II. As other country, we have cemetery for Unknown Soldier. But in 1978, our government included war criminals into Unknown Soldier. And our Prime Minister Koizumi is continually visiting the cemetery (Actually it looks as if it is a shrine, following Japanese tradition) and continuously irritating Neighboring County like Korea and China.

This is quite the contrary of a German attitude on the past mistake as you pointed out in your note make when you visited The Reichstag in Berlin. If he does not take action separating war criminals from other Unknown Soldier, Japan may loose international respect and in addition it is quite a dangerous things to forget about past mistake.

Finally, I have completed editing your note and photos of your Baltic Cruise, before starting our trip to France. We will copy your trip to Paris in the first 5 days and set out to countryside in the latter 5 days. As my wife made the plan, I do not know more than that. I will start learning during my trip.

Best Regards,

Greenwood

The LA Times had a long story today about the Yasukuni Shrine. It generally followed your report, but said that the shrine is privately funded. This meant that the government has little leverage to change the way the shrine presents history.

They also reported that former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone said it would be "an admirable political decision" for Prime Minister Koizumi to stop visiting - as Nakasone did in 1985 after Chinese protests. The report said that there are now 8 former Prime Ministers urging him to change his policy, along with the leader of the New Komeito party, Takenori Kanzaki.

I believe it would be very good for Prime Minister Koizumi to stop the visits - especially since the Bush Administration has been so stubborn over North Korea's nuclear weapons. Unless more sensible policies prevail, I see a growing danger of an unlimited arms race in East Asia. Mr. Koizumi is in a position to take very mature and statesman-like action.

2005/6/18 11:47
France

Dear Ron,

We had returned from 11days trip to France.

In the first 5 days, we stayed in Paris and visited various places. I also visited St. Martin canal where you had visited in the previous visit. In the latter half, we visited countryside of Champagne and Bourgogne by rental car.

We found driving is easy in the countryside of France.

I found that France is still keeping wide untouched natural land as forest. Most of the farming area is used for wheat. Land used for vineyard is not big compared to that for the crops. In this respect this country has many advantages in the future, in the time of depleting fossil fuel.

We have enjoyed the trip very much.

Best regards,

Greenwood

Re: PRIUS TEST

Dear Ron,

I am calling my fuel hungry Jeep, a zero emission car. Because I can live without it in normal life, and the Jeep is sleeping happily in my garage. I can walk for short distance and would take tramcar for medium distance. I use it mainly for going into mountains.

But for LA dwellers Prius would be the best choice. Especially, in the coming high priced oil age.

I agree with you for not making things different. Not only car, but many new products such as cellular phone has different design and makes people confused. I like Jeep because it has no fascinating remote operated devices and it has classical straight up windshield.

I have no experience driving Prius, but I have experience of driving with navigation system in Hokkaido. It is very helpful but once you are accustomed to it, you might be in danger by mixing up virtual world with real world. I narrowly escaped from car accident by returning back to reality.

By the way, Avalon reminded me a small town called Avallon in France where we passed through. The trip to France was more than I expected. I took 711 pictures and selected 98 pictures for my HP. English page is coming soon.

We are against national database containing citizens' personal data. As you pointed out, those system will give authorities to control people like Big Brother.

Best wishes,

Greenwood

Monday, June 27, 2005 12:54 PM
PRIUS TEST

Dear Greenwood.

I finally got the chance to do a little driving in the Prius. A very well engineered machine, with some problems, mainly due to marketing I expect.

My son (who works at Toyota) is on a short vacation trip this weekend. He elected to rent a Prius from the firm (their employee rental rates are actually cheaper than driving your own car if you travel any serious distance). He got it a day early and let me drive it for that day; here's my quick impressions and test results.

GENERAL COMMENT
Although distinctive, I wish Toyota hadn't felt the need to make so many things different. The weird styling has a number of serious shortcomings - the very high windshield lets the sun shine on the electronic display often making it impossible to see. The steeply raked rear half of the roof means there is very little headroom on the rear seats - I'm about average height and had no trouble touching the roof with my head while sitting there. One bump and your rear seat passengers have a big headache!

I never got the hang of the pushbutton door locks. They seemed to work or not work according to some random pattern. I settled for using the normal electronic remote pushbuttons which were fine. Perhaps the strangest thing is their push button "start". Quite different from any other car, with no advantages I can see. A simple standard key would be fine as far as I'm concerned.

On the other hand, it was well up to Toyota's high standards. It was very quiet, comfortable and smooth riding. Handling was not nearly as bad as some reports I've read - not exactly a sports car, but probably better than my Avalon. It seemed to handle bumps and ruts with great ease.

All-in-all, though, it confirmed my wife's decision to buy the Avalon instead. If an old engineer-tinkerer cannot get comfortable with these things, what she and most normal people would make of them I cannot imagine.

TESTS
Here there's much better news. The "consumption" and "energy" readouts are fascinating and very helpful in driving economically. I ended up doing a few short trips and report the fuel usage I read out from their display (I trust Toyota to give reasonably accurate numbers). Ambient temp was about 70 - 75 degs F. The official EPA mileage for the car is 60 Miles per Gallon in the city and 51 MPG on the highway. (NOTE: Higher in the city cycle - that is not an error).

TRIP #1 From the Toyota parking lot to home, with a few miles detour on the San Diego freeway (flowing reasonably well). Total miles 18, MPG for trip 47.3. The trip started cold and fuel consumption was clearly much worse during the warm-up period - the average mileage kept climbing. Air conditioning OFF.

TRIP #2 Home to a local hospital to visit a friend. Car was still warm from trip #1. All surface streets - typical LA "Somnolent" city driving - very slow by most cities' standards with weak acceleration and gentle (regenerative) braking. I noticed that, cruising well above 15 MPH (up to 30 or so) I could still get the engine to switch off! It had to be on a level or downgrade surface and I had to use my right foot as though there was an egg under it. In this mode the MPG display was pegged at 100. Total miles 8, MPG 49.9. Air Conditioning ON.

TRIP #3 Shopping after leaving the hospital. Traffic had cleared a bit, so not quite so somnolent. Normal LA city driving - mostly on the flat. Miles 9, MPG 42.1. Air conditioning ON.

TRIP #4 Next day - cold start. Same conditions as trip #3, but no longer driving with an egg on the accelerator. Miles 8, MPG 32.4. Air Conditioning ON.

I think I can see where Toyota can get up to 60 MPG in town driving. First, I'd make sure the engine was warmed up before the start, or the trip was long enough to make the initial low-mileage portion negligible. Make sure the battery is full charged before starting, so the engine-less mode is as available as possible. Put two eggs under the right foot and take off your shoes. Watch the instruments like a hawk and keep the engine off most of the time. Anticipate braking by hanging back from the car in front (Is there any traffic in the EPA test? Probably not, since it would introduce a random error - efficient driving is piece of cake if you're on your own!).

Since I got almost 50 MPG with virtually no practice and was actually driving in traffic with at least some consideration for my fellow road users, I can believe the car is capable of 60 in "City" driving. No wonder nobody can match it in the real world though.

Have you had any experience with this car? They are selling very well here; you have to go on a waiting list for several months and have to buy a car loaded with all the expensive options like the navigation system - that's very profitable for the dealers!

With best regards,

Ron

Dear Greenwood.

Today's paper has an article about the attempts of your government to set up a national data base containing citizens' personal data. I found it very interesting, since from time to time our own bureaucrats try to do the same sort of thing.

Like the US, your citizens seem very opposed to this idea. No Big Brother for either of us I hope.

If you'd like to read it it's on the LA Times site at

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-ft-japanid4jul04,1,5554481.story

With best regards,

Ron

Dear Ron,

I am calling my fuel hungry Jeep, a zero emission car. Because I can live without it in normal life, and the Jeep is sleeping happily in my garage. I can walk for short distance and would take tramcar for medium distance. I use it mainly for going into mountains.

But for LA dwellers Prius would be the best choice. Especially, in the coming high priced oil age.

I agree with you for not making things different. Not only car, but many new products such as cellular phone has different design and makes people confused. I like Jeep because it has no fascinating remote operated devices and it has classical straight up windshield.

I have no experience driving Prius, but I have experience of driving with navigation system in Hokkaido. It is very helpful but once you are accustomed to it, you might be in danger by mixing up virtual world with real world. I narrowly escaped from car accident by returning back to reality.

By the way, Avalon reminded me a small town called Avallon in France where we passed through. The trip to France was more than I expected. I took 711 pictures and selected 98 pictures for my HP. English page is coming soon.

We are against national database containing citizens' personal data. As you pointed out, those system will give authorities to control people like Big Brother.

Best wishes,

Greenwood

Dear Greenwood.

I have finally paid a good visit to your HP. Among other places I visited your Paris / France trip, my Baltic Cruise and your hybridcar section.

The latter was interesting in the light of upheavals in Mercedes Benz and (reported today) at Volkswagen. The comment in your HP about who would buy Mercedes has really become relevant. VW also has seen big declines in sales and has severe financial problems. A big management shakeup is going on and they need huge cost savings to get back to a profitable operation.

Toyota, on the other hand is going from strength to strength. I guess the engineers are still important there, so they produce excellent, technically innovative and reliable cars at low cost. A US company which compares cars (J.D. Power) has just published their ratings report for three year reliability which shows several interesting changes. As usual, Toyota does very well. The Lexus brand had the lowest number of defects per vehicle; Toyota brand was seventh, just behind Nissan's Infinity. Honda also had good
ratings.

The biggest change is the relative performance of the US brands. Lincoln, Buick and Cadillac were # 3, 4 and 5 respectively and Ford, Chevrolet and Chrysler were all above average. The second shocker was the performance of German brands. VW was 4th from the bottom of the list, beating only the MINI (a British car, owned by BMW), Land Rover (owned by Ford) and Kia. Audi was 7th from the bottom and the mighty Mercedes was 11th from the bottom with 283 faults per 100 cars compared with 139 for Lexus and 151 for Lincoln. (Nobody should be surprised that the Brits come in at the bottom - although Jaguar does edge out Mercedes). If you'd like to see the detailed results they are onwww.jdpower.com .

It's probably too soon to say that the US car makers are recovering, but they are certainly better placed than the big European companies. One sad observation is that two Japanese companies (now much influenced by Detroit) which used to be very reliable have fallen below average - Mazda and Subaru. Perhaps GM has sent it's cost accountants to "help" Subaru?

Your trip to France looked fascinating. It's amazing how much ground you covered in a few days. The pictures of Paris, in particular, brought back fond memories for me - especially the one of the St. Martin canal. I've never been to Giverny, but your pictures of Monet's garden really bring it to life. The weather looked ideal, except for the one day in the Bourgogne.

Thank you for the display of my Baltic trip and for the artistic "texture" in the background of the text.

With best regards,

Ron

Thursday, August 04, 2005 9:28 AM
SOPHIA COOPER (aka MINI COOPER)

A textbook birth last night. Sophia D'Elia Cooper. Wt - 7 pounds, 9 ounces, 3.4 kg. 20 inches, 51 cm.

Mother and Child are fine. Father still a bit dazed, but prognosis good.

First-time, delirious Grandparents in guarded condition. There is hope that, given time, enough recovery could be achieved to return almost to normal life.

Ron and Connie

SOPHIA COOPER (aka MINI COOPER)

Dear Ron and Connie,

Congratulations!

I presume having grand children; especially a girl is sweetest thing in one's life. I have just returned from a short trip of visiting a resort house of my wife's relatives. During the stay, I was asked to read a book and to make a chat and to walk hand in hand with a very young lady there. I felt a deep joy I never experienced.

I envy you for your good luck..

Greenwood

The high price of Gas. We're paying for it.

Dear Ron,

Thank you for valuable information about Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan.

After a month long hard working, I finally completed my reserch on "Power Generation by Artificial Typhoon" which I told you a year ago.

I improved my program and made many case studies and fond recomended desigh philosophy. My method can achieve unit cost of power generation of 11 cents/kWh.

I wrote a paper of 15 pages and is going to present it in a small private gathering to be held in a hut in Italian Alps in coming September 21. I added a nice photograph of Sheikh in the last slide of my presentation.

After patent application, I would like to publish it next year.

Best Regards,

Greenwood

Today I heard from an energy consultant that he felt oil could very easily reach $100 per barrel. He has some credibility since he correctly forecast a price of over $60. While I agree $100 is quite possible, I also recall the great volatility of oil prices over the historical record. Thus I'd not be at all surprised by $100 or even higher, I also would not be surprised to see it below $30 again.

Nevertheless, your research is right on target. There is no doubt that world oil demand will continue to increase, especially from China and India. I believe we are already close to the maximum possible world production rate, so expect the supply and demand balance to find a new level. Demand is notoriously inflexible [at least in the short term] so the overall price trend will be steeply upward. About the only thing that could prevent this would be a world-wide recession. This is also another gloomy possibility.

There is no doubt that new sources of energy are needed. Unlike the vaunted "Hydrogen Economy", which actually reduces the available energy on Earth, generation from unused sources, such as wind and solar radiation, will find a good market. I'm guessing that your "Power Generation by Artificial Typhoon" will fit into the second category.

Thank you for your kind congratulations on birth of Sophia. Connie and I are really enjoying the experience. As you found, a young child is an absolutely fascinating being. When less than a month old the rate of development is stunning. Already she is looking at people with absolute concentration - there is now no doubt that a mind is at work. Personality development can not be far away.

Last night my son and his wife wanted a break, so we had the baby until almost midnight. It went smoothly after a difficult hour or so. This morning Connie said "I miss the baby".

2005/9/2 10:32
Hurricane Catrina

Dear Don,

I learned a lot from recent tragedy in southern coast of US.

As I am living on a hilltop over looking the coast, I am very concerned to the intensity of wind. When I build my house, I bolted down with 45 bolts to the foundations and applied may cross bracings. This is more than ordinary designs practiced here. Just after started living, I changed window glass into thick ones. Then I placed another window frame on top of the existing window frame. And finally, Last year I replace old eaves trough to new strong design and applied transparent film to window glass. Probably next thing I have to do is to put wooden door inside windows.

During the 20th century there have been large variations from year to year and decade to decade in the number of tropical cyclones with no clear trends either in their average number or their average intensity. But I believe Global Warming is behind the scene. Japan's earth simulator predicted less number of tropical cyclones on average in the future, but they do predict an increasing trend in their peak wind and precipitation intensities.

Mr. Bush has to act with urgency to mitigate human induced climate change so as to reduce the increased incidence of such events in the future. I hope this is probably the most important thing, which he has to learn from Hurricane Catrina.

Best regard,

Greenwood

Dear Greenwood.

Your house sounds well prepared. I wish we were equally. [Although, when I added a second story 20 years ago I had to bring the house up to more modern earthquake standards - much bracing as you described, including huge bolts anchoring the main load-bearing wall to the foundation and many cu. m of concrete foundations.]

I'm afraid the lesson Mr. Bush is learning is reflected in profits made by his rich patrons, who he calls "My Base" - especially the oil
companies. Exxon, Chevron and all the others were already making record profits BEFORE the most recent run up in oil prices and long before Hurricane Katrina. If you want to cash in also, get into natural resources and energy stocks. (Fidelity's biggest energy mutual fund is up 50% this year. A few coal mining company shares I inherited from Fluor are up 45%. The Dow is down 3%, along with many other countries' indices.) Of course, in their view, Global Warming is just exaggerated by self-interested "special interests".

More disturbing still is the way he has crippled government at all levels with budget cuts. The disaster in New Orleans was well forecast for many years by both engineering experts and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). In recent years, plans to strengthen the levees around N.O. were shelved to cut the agency's budget. [Ironically, in the spring of 2001, FEMA listed the three most serious threats to the US: A Terrorist Attack in New York, Breach of the New Orleans Levees and an Earthquake in San Francisco. Looks like CA will be next? I know there are no effective plans to deal with a big CA earthquake - our State Government has debated this for years, but there is a much bigger need to cut taxes!]

In stark contrast today, there is a story from China where almost 600,000 people were efficiently evacuated from Fujian Province before Typhoon Talim came onshore. It seems the US gets more backward every year.

In New Orleans I note the similarity to our government's response to looting and violence in Baghdad immediately after our invasion. Donald Rumsfeld said, not to worry, "Democracy is Untidy". I guess we have a very large amount of "Democracy" in New Orleans these days. The polarization of wealth in this country is ever-accelerating. Last year median income barely kept up with inflation, but members of Corporate Boards of Directors averaged an 18% increase in pay.

It astonishes me that so many of our lower income people admire this government. This is especially true in the South, where incomes are very low, yet the voters overwhelmingly prefer the Republicans. Perhaps on-going disasters, both at home, in Iraq and elsewhere will finally open their eyes.

With gloomy regards,

Ron

Tuesday, September 13, 2005 6:54 AM
NEW EMAIL ADDRESS AND MR. KOIZUMI

Dear Greenwood,

Connie finally got tired of having the telephone tied up while one of us was online, so we have changed to a high speed (DSL) connection. My old provider, Earthlink, could have done the same thing, but they were much more expensive than my phone company. Therefore we have signed up with Verizon (the phone co.) and have a new address as a result. I was unable to get the good address I had before, somebody else must have roncooper @ verizon. Please note the inserted "z".

By all accounts Mr. Koizumi has won a landslide victory. The LA Times story said he ran a very different campaign from previous Japanese elections - "a theatrical, confrontational campaign". It seems he has a big mandate for privatizing Japan Post. The paper also credited him with a big defeat of the dissident members of the LDP who stopped his bill doing this in the last parliament.

I also understand that the defeat of the Democratic Party of Japan was so severe that their leader, Mr. Okada, resigned. I think Mr. Okada did have one good point that Japan is ignoring the demographic challenge of declining population and the imminent retirement of the "Baby Boom" generation. It seems, like Europe, Japan will have hard times ahead.

The US government's incompetence has been revealed for all to see by the humiliating response to New Orleans. George Bush's poll ratings are at the lowest ever; many in his own party are very critical too. Today the politically-appointed hack who was head of FEMA resigned. Let us hope there will be more house-cleaning, al though I believe the problems go all the way to our Commander-in-Chief.

With best regards,

Ron

2005/9/13 11:01

NEW EMAIL ADDRESS AND MR. KOIZUMI

Dear Ron,

At last, you are connected with broader line. Congratulations! For your trial, please open

http://earth.google.com/

After down loading viewer, you can look down in your house from satellite. If you are lucky, you can also enjoy aerial photograph of your house.

Attached SMB2-18-10.jpg is an aerial photograph of my house, which I found in the same google earth. I marked up my house with white line. If you tilt the aerial photograph, it automatically convert into 3D image as SMB3D.jpg. Probably google is using digitized map of our Geographical Survey Institute of Japan for making frame reflecting the terrain and pasting aerial photo on top of the frame. Please compare it with actual image of SMBFuji.jpg. Close-up of my house looks like as home04.jpg.

LA's report is correctly reflecting political atmosphere in Japan. When Mr. Koizumi dissolved the Diet, I thought he would win the election. Because Democratic Party and dissident members of the LDP who stopped Koizumi's bill looked like a group of people binding Japan in obsolete system.

Japan is still running a circle behind. Small government policy looks still attractive to most of Japanese. Sooner or later, small government may result in a disaster like New Orleans. Prof. Krugman is not in favor of small government. Probably adequate size is a key word. But such word does not attract people's mind in a large theater. As a result, cyclic political
movement may continue. Probably after Mr. Bush, a shift to larger government might be a general trend.

At last, I finalized patent application. It may reach our patent office in September 16. Regrettably, unit cost of power generation finally resulted in 14.1 yen/kWh. When oil price reach 100$, I hope some one might have interest in realization of my idea.

Best regards,

Greenwood.

Saturday, September 17, 2005 9:20 PM
Subject: Re: My Paper

Dear Greenwood,

Thank you for allowing me a preview of your paper. I much appreciate your confidence; the paper will not be disclosed in any way before I hear your patent application is accepted.

I'm now printing and anticipate an enjoyable study period tomorrow (It's 2100 hours here, too late for serious thinking).

I trust the paper will get a warm reception in Italy and hope the weather smiles on you.

With best regards,

2005/9/18 12:46
My Paper

Dear Ron,

I am departing to Italy tomorrow and tell people attached findings. I filed my findings to the Patent Office of Japan. But please keep the paper in your hand until it is published in magazine.

Best regards,

Greenwood

Please excuse my misstatement. I meant that I would not disclose before you approve.

Ron

Dear Greenwood,

Thank you for allowing me a preview of your paper. I much appreciate your confidence; the paper will not be disclosed in any way before I hear your patent application is accepted.

I'm now printing and anticipate an enjoyable study period tomorrow (It's 2100 hours here, too late for serious thinking).

I trust the paper will get a warm reception in Italy and hope the weather smiles on you.

With best regards,

Ron

Dear Greenwood,

Thank you for an exceptional experience reading your paper on the "Typhoon Generator". I've not had as much engineering intellectual enjoyment in a very long time. In your usual way, the paper was very thorough and covered an enormous range of subjects. Your identification of the advantages of a top-mounted turbine was brilliant. (It also demonstrates the value of good Chemical Engineering).

One thing I found very interesting was the reverse engineering of the Spanish and Australian plants. The way in which your algorithms reproduce their results is very convincing. It was not clear how much of the Aus. data was from the design or if any was from operating experience. Has the plant started yet? Do you have operating and actual cost data?

While it is unfortunate that the calculated cost of power is on the high side, I do not think that is necessarily fatal to the concept. I note the duct cost of case D is over 40% of the total. You mentioned, but did not explore, the concept of supporting the draft duct from a cliff. While I am no civil engineer, it seems likely that a lightweight duct supported from a cliff might be very cost effective compared with the massive concrete structure of a free-standing "chimney", let alone the cost of boring through the rock. For such a new concept the first few designs are never fully cost effective.

An additional factor in your favor is the steep (and inevitable?) rise in energy costs. Any fuel-free system must have a long term advantage. Given the huge and on-going increase in demand for energy, especially in South and East Asia, and the famously inelastic demand/price curve of energy, it's hard to see anything but a steep long term rise in energy cost. [I'm not forgetting that oil prices have historically been extremely volatile. While more than $60 per bbl. is close to historical highs (corrected for inflation), I would not expect the present escalation to continue without interruption. Neither $100 or $30 per bbl. would surprise me over the next few years].

Therefore, I think this concept is at least as viable as many widely promoted concepts and look forward to seeing other plants built using experience derived from the first two. I hope your patent is granted and you share in the rewards for helping to pioneer and advance the concept.

With best regards,

Ron

It sounds good to me, but I'm musically illiterate, so cannot say how
valid this is. If any of you know the lingo I hope you get a deeper
laugh.

Ron

ARTIFICIAL TYPHOON PAPER

Dear Ron,

Please accept my apology for my delay responding to your kind mail.

After returning from a trip to Italy and Croatia, I took flu due to probably fatigue and took almost 2 weeks to recover and time for preparing travel record of 17 pages was also needed. Now a brief translation was uploaded.

Only available data from Prototype in Spain, and Image of Australian Project were all taken from the video and newspaper report and associated web site.

http://www.solarmissiontechnologies.com/index.html

If you click two of those videos and web site you can find those data.

I also think supporting the draft duct from a cliff is a low cost route. But due to difficulty of cost estimation, I only concentrated on self-standing concrete tower. Probably I can add comments on this point as further cutting
cost items.

Official proceedings of my paper will be published by Prof. Zulim of Faculty of Electrical Engineering, University of Split.

My Japanese paper was first accepted by a chief editor of Chemical Engineering Journal Japan but finally rejected by a professor of Tokyo University. It seems that this idea is still too strange to certain people who wish the world stay the same as before.

I am thinking to contribute to another organization but before that I would like to check potential hybrid system.

Thank you for cartoon about Halliburton, Fluor and Bechtel and funny story using musical words. It took a long time to understand the implied meaning.

Best Regards,

Greenwood

Thursday, September 22, 2005 10:24 AM
ARTIFICIAL TYPHOON PAPER

Dear Greenwood,

Thank you for an exceptional experience reading your paper on the "Typhoon Generator". I've not had as much engineering intellectual enjoyment in a very long time. In your usual way, the paper was very thorough and covered an enormous range of subjects. Your identification of the advantages of a top-mounted turbine was brilliant. (It also demonstrates the value of good Chemical Engineering).

One thing I found very interesting was the reverse engineering of the Spanish and Australian plants. The way in which your algorithms reproduce their results is very convincing. It was not clear how much of the Aus. data was from the design or if any was from operating experience. Has the plant started yet? Do you have operating and actual cost data?

While it is unfortunate that the calculated cost of power is on the high side, I do not think that is necessarily fatal to the concept. I note the duct cost of case D is over 40% of the total. You mentioned, but did not explore, the concept of supporting the draft duct from a cliff. While I am no civil engineer, it seems likely that a lightweight duct supported from a cliff might be very cost effective compared with the massive concrete structure of a free-standing "chimney", let alone the cost of boring through the rock. For such a new concept the first few designs are never fully cost effective.

An additional factor in your favor is the steep (and inevitable?) rise in energy costs. Any fuel-free system must have a long term advantage. Given the huge and on-going increase in demand for energy, especially in South and East Asia, and the famously inelastic demand/price curve of energy, it's hard to see anything but a steep long term rise in energy cost. [I'm not forgetting that oil prices have historically been extremely volatile. While more than $60 per bbl. is close to historical highs (corrected for inflation), I would not expect the present escalation to continue without interruption. Neither $100 or $30 per bbl. would surprise me over the next few years].

Therefore, I think this concept is at least as viable as many widely promoted concepts and look forward to seeing other plants built using experience derived from the first two. I hope your patent is granted and you share in the rewards for helping to pioneer and advance the concept.

With best regards,

Ron

After returning from a trip to Italy and Croatia, I took flu due to probably fatigue and took almost 2 weeks to recover and time for preparing travel record of 17 pages was also needed. Now a brief translation was uploaded.

Your rejection by "the establishment" sounds all too typical. I did not understand your reference to "potential hybrid system". Was that a hybrid of your invention?

Your study inspired me to look again at solar heating. I've long noticed how hot the air space in my attic gets when the sun is shining. Even at this time of year, that space reaches 30 degs C before 1100 hours. It levels off about 15 C above the outside ambient at about 1300 hours and finally drops below 25 C by about 1900 hours. I've experimented with shutting off my roof ventilator and, as a result, estimate there is enough heat available in fall and spring seasons to significantly contribute to my house heating. My forced air heating system is in the same location. Therefore, I believe I could place a small fan in the space and connect the discharge to one or two of my existing air ducts to the main living area of the house. A simple fiberglass filter on the inlet would keep out dust.

I even looked around for a suitable fan [the ones I have are too big to fit in the space available], but they are not for sale this time of year. Next spring I'll look for one and experiment. [Do the rise in natural gas prices we are expecting heating bills to rise 50% this year].

The good news here remains the success of the Prius and other hybrid cars in the US market. Literally, Toyota cannot make them fast enough, in spite of expanding production capacity. There is still a long waiting list to buy Prius and other hybrids.

As an interesting side issue, Toyota and other Asian car manufacturers continue to expand their sales in the US while GM and Ford continue to lose sales. I read the other day that the capital value of Toyota is many times that of GM and Ford COMBINED. Our stock market reflects this state of affairs. Most US indices are hardly changed since the beginning of the year and many commentators express grave doubts about the future. On the other hand, other markets are thriving. The re-election of Premier Koizumi has really inspired the Japanese market. A US mutual fund of Japanese stocks I hold is now up 22% for the year to date.

US equities are now less than 1/3 of my holdings, and I now have a significant amount in Japanese stock funds. At the back of my mind is the continuing US trade deficit. How long will other countries continue issuing us blank checks? Now he is retiring, Alan Greenspan has become much more vocal about our double deficits - internal budget deficits and international trade deficits.

In yesterday's voting the Republicans lost a number of significant elections. Our California Governor, Republican Arnold Schwarzennegger, lost all the propositions he put on the ballot. Like President Bush his approval ratings have dropped drastically; both of them have less than 40% approval. Unfortunately, the Democrats show no real signs of life. They continue to display no attractive policies or ideas - they just oppose Bush et al. It would be nice to have an attractive alternative.

Monday, November 21, 2005 9:15 AM
JAPANESE ECONOMY

Dear Greenwood.

You may be interested in a LA Times Business Section article about the Japanese economy and Mr. Koizumi's reforms. It was written by a Times staff writer, assisted by a member of their Tokyo bureau.

The main idea is that Prime Minister Koizumi has successfully begun a real process of reform of the economy. They cite the fact that the Japanese stock market has almost doubled in the last three years, that unemployment is down and profits up. Even land prices in big cities seem to edging upwards. [I did notice that the same rise occurred in 1999, followed by a decline to even lower lows in 2003 - it's easy to get trapped by the market]!

His move to privatize the Post Office has started a long process [until 2017], but has big momentum and is expected to cut down on a big source of money for wasteful spending by bureaucrats - like our famous "Bridge to Nowhere" [an isolated Alaskan Island, part of a recent bill approved by the Congress].

One could draw parallels to the impact of Margaret Thatcher in Britain many years ago. In fact many of the same criticisms are being made - that the recovery will help the rich at the expense of the poor. They point to the similarities to the situation in the US where the very rich now hold a huge part of the country's wealth - not seen since the end of the 19th century. Correspondingly, US real wages peaked in the late 1970's. For a long time now, the wages of Americans in the low and middle income brackets have failed to keep up with inflation.

The writers also claim that the psychological atmosphere in Japan is very changed - to a "Japan is Back" attitude. Foreign investment has been pouring in - apparently over $40 Billion between May and September. I confess to being part of this and now hold part of my savings in US mutual funds that invest in Japan. One is up more than 20%, year to date, while our Dow Jones Index is where it started the year [down 0.15%].

I'll attach the article for your examination. It sounds plausible to me, but I'd like to know how you find it.

Thank you for an article of LA Times. I think the article and your summary reflect general understand about our economy and Mr. Koizumi's reform here in Japan.

It is very strange for me to find cheap Yen against Dollar in those days. If foreign funds are investing to Japanese stock market, Yen should be higher than Dollar but actually it is not. Another theory is that foreign fund are borrowing Yen from Japanese commercial bank and investing outside Japan. Extremely low interest rate in Japan is the reason. In any case, I advised my wife to sell her US government bond. She got 16% capital gain. Still I think I am very poor in an ability to make correct anticipation about movement of stock market. I almost lost 50% of potential capital gain if I had kept my stock. It almost doubled in the last 6 months.

The words "potential hybrid system” means extracting additional power from waste heat of Nuclear power generation plant using draft power. I would like to make calculation to find viability some time when I could find time. Before that, I have to make cost estimation of the additional cost associated with dome on top of the vertical duct. I think it is still missing.

Your idea of sending warm air in your attic to your living room by small fan is a viable way of using solar power economically.
Probably, it is called something like "passive solar house". In my case, as I am using white roof tile, the attic temperature is rather low. Water heating is popular here in Japan. Hot water is used for daily bathing.

He talked me about the importance of diesel engine in Europe because of long distance travelling on high ways.
After returning to Japan, I revised my page about Hybrid car to include diesel hybrid car.

I agree that it is impossible to predict the movements of the market, however, I have found a different philosophy, that has been working for me. Rather than predict the future, I try to identify trends such as the recent improvement in the Japanese market. Once identified and satisfied that it is not just a quick movement, I buy in, then hold for as long as the trend is maintained.

Two things are key. First you have to distinguish between short term "blips" in the market or false starts; secondly you have to decide when the trend is reversed (again ignoring blips that are just short term interruptions in a long term movement). Since I retired in 1998 I have developed methods for doing these things.

Do not be concerned with missing the exact start and finish of a good trend - nobody is able to hit the trough and peak exactly. I am satisfied if I can beat the market averages. Perhaps the greatest thing I have learned is the value of being in selected overseas markets. Currently the Japanese, other South and East Asia and Latin American markets are doing very well, along with (of course) the energy market. These are my biggest holdings these days. Previously the US Real Estate market and the European markets were good, but I have made big reductions in these lately.

Most of the time I spend with my investments is used in gathering and comparing data. In the early days I didn't do enough of that. Without good, current data it's impossible to identify the trends I mentioned above. I estimate I spend about 15 hours a week doing this. My rate of return compares favorably with my career at Fluor! And the stress level is very much less.

I'm sorry I've taken so long getting back to you, but I've had many activities conflicting. Not the least of these is baby sitting our granddaughter with my wife. She is doing very well and is a constant joy for us.

Dear Greenwood,

This'll be a mixture of items in the papers this week, with some connection to our previous conversations.

1) SENATOR MC CAIN. Is a quite conservative Republican Senator. This week he resoundingly exposed George Bush's weakness on moral grounds. As you know he got W to concede on the matter of the US swearing not to use torture. It was unbelievable to many of us that the subject could even be debated in the US. Our President insisted that we HAD to do it! Senator McCain got overwhelming votes in both the Senate and in the House showing that his law to ban it would not only pass, but also be able to override the veto that GWB threatened.

Most significantly, the majority of the President's own party joined McCain. Faced with certain defeat, W backed down, looking not only foolish, but also out of step with the great majority of Americans.

2) PATRIOT ACT. Later this week the Senate refused to vote for the extension of our notorious "Patriot Act". This came on the day that the New York Times published a story that, since 2001 our "Justice" department has been secretly and illegally bugging internet communications between Americans and overseas parties. The two events were directly related. Once again the administration has been caught breaking the spirit and letter of the law under the "War on Terrorism" banner. Once again they've been shown to be completely out of touch with most citizens.

These are very welcome developments. They show that GWB's actions have become repugnant to many Republicans, as well as the great majority of other Americans. I think the Iraq war and increasing sleaze on Bush's part may build into a deeper and deeper pit for the administration.

3) WTO The other item is not nearly as good. I refer to the almost certain failure of the WTO negotiations in Hong Kong to convince the Western Democracies to reduce their notorious agricultural subsidies. I believe these are responsible for a great deal of the World's poverty; denying western markets to farmers in Africa and other poor regions. It seems the farmers' lobbies in Europe, the US and Japan are just too strong for our cowardly politicians. In the recent negotiations in the European Union, Britain had to settle for bringing the subject up again in 2007-8. In other words - no action once again. I think this is one of the worst examples of cynical politics overriding moral needs that we face today. [CA has a very large subsidized agricultural industry. Among other nonsense we subsidize growing rice in a semi-desert!]

With best regards,

Ron

Dear Greenwood.

This time I've saved the attachment and will attach it myself to this mail. I hope it gets through OK.

The instructions read:

If your eyes follow the movement of the rotating pink dot, you will only see one color, pink. If you stare at the black + in the center, the moving dot turns to green. Now, concentrate on the black + in the center of the picture. After a short period of time, all the pink dots will slowly disappear, and you will only see a green dot rotating if you're lucky! It's amazing how our brain works. There really is no green dot, and the pink ones really don't disappear. This should be proof enough, we don't always see what we think we see.

In practice, I think you are following the GAP rotating around the purple dots, just a minor quibble.

Ron

Friday, December 23, 2005 2:57 AM
COOLILLUSION - TRY 3

Dear Greenwood.

This time I'm simply pasting in the link. I think this may work best

COOLILLUSION - TRY 3

Dear Ron,

Thank you for many mails. I have circulated rotating image to my friends. I first assumed that this is using afterimage in complementary color. Then using Microsoft Gif Animator I found a name and URL of the original designer. He was Prof. Micgael Bach of University of Freiburg, Germany.

You can find other 59 optical illusions in his site,

http://www.michaelbach.de/ot/

Re: JAPANESE ECONOMY - #1 MARKETS

I understand why you are confident in making market analysis. You spend 15 hours a week identifying the trend! Probably I should do the same.

Recently, our neighbor sold their house and decided to make huge investment in stock market. He earned most of his money in a similar manner. He says now he sees big chance.

Another retired friend confessed that he lost substantial money in stock market. Ironically he was a banker and top of a stockbroker.

As you can see from my delayed mail, I am very busy in reading books, walking, climbing, sailing and finally editing my web pages. Therefore, I cannot find time to study market. I decided to read 1,000 books and write note about it (does not appear in English Page) and to climb 100 mountains and go on a pilgrimage around 33 temples dedicated to the Kannon in Kanto Plane. (English page is coming)

POLITICS IN JAPAN AND THE US

We are following the subjects you mentioned about US politics through our news paper and TV media. We understand US opinion is coming back to more or less balanced position, which swung to extreme after 9/11.

I think farmers' lobbies in Europe, the US and Japan is kidnapping people's fear for starvation when free trade system was destroyed by some reasons.

Have a nice holyday,

Greenwood

JAPANESE ECONOMY

Dear Ron,

Thank you for an article of LA Times. I think the article and your summary reflect general understand about our economy and Mr. Koizumi's reform here in Japan.

It is very strange for me to find cheap Yen against Dollar in those days. If foreign funds are investing to Japanese stock market, Yen should be higher than Dollar but actually it is not. Another theory is that foreign fund are borrowing Yen from Japanese commercial bank and investing outside Japan. Extremely low interest rate in Japan is the reason. In any case, I advised my wife to sell her US government bond. She got 16% capital gain. Still I think I am very poor in an ability to make correct anticipation about movement of stock market. I almost lost 50% of potential capital gain if I had kept my stock. It almost doubled in the last 6 months.

Regarding Mr. Koizmi, I think his performances in foreign affairs are very poor. Now we know he could do nothing to improve relation with China and Korea.

The words "potential hybrid system" means extracting additional power from waste heat of Nuclear power generation plant using draft power. I would like to make calculation to find viability some time when I could find time. Before that, I have to make cost estimation of the additional cost associated with dome on top of the vertical duct. I think it is still missing.

Your idea of sending warm air in your attic to your living room by small fan is a viable way of using solar power economically. Probably, it is called something like "passive solar house". In my case, as I am using white roof tile, the attic temperature is rather low. Water heating is popular here in Japan. Hot water is used for daily bathing.

During my visit to Italy, I have met a German called Dr. Wegmann.

http://www.asahi-net.or.jp/~pu4i-aok/traveldata4/sella/sellae.htm

I enjoyed "New Orleans... Why help never arrived" very much.

"Cool illusion.html" does not show pictures, because they pictures are not attached.

Best Regards,

Greenwood

E-mails Exchanged Between Ron and Greenwood

2005