Greenwood's old friend, Ron living in Manhattan Beach and Greenwood living in Seven Mile Beach has been exchanging their views on various aspects of the world through email over more than 8 years. With the permission of Ron, a record of mails exchanged in 2003 was compiled in chronological order.
2003/1/4 11:00
EUROPE
Dear Greenwood,
Your Iberian trip looks quite exhausting, as you say. I counted 26 different
places that you are to visit, about 2 per day! On occasion, during our Greece
visit, we had two places in one day, but usually one was either easy or
optional. We were not exhausted, but quite tired after some of our days on a
much easier schedule than yours. Good luck.
Connie and I have discussed visiting France with you. We'd love to do it, but
Connie has been having some nagging health problems lately and doesn't want to
make a commitment like that at the moment. As you say, we can make our own pace;
as we did in Paris a couple of years ago. How long do you have before you must
make reservations? Possibly she will resolve her problems soon.
I'm glad to see that several governments are trying to avoid the Microsoft
monopoly. They seem to have completely outwitted the US Justice Dept. Many here
are suspicious that the Dept. slacked off after our present Govt. took over.
Much more disturbing, lately, is the stand off between N.Korea and the Bush
administration. I'm afraid the "John Wayne" school of diplomacy, which appeals
so well to Bush's supporters, is exactly the wrong way to deal with N. Korea.
Each side seems to act so as to offend and annoy the other to the maximum
degree. How absurd to attack Iraq who MAY develop nuclear weapons and leave
yourself open to the much bigger chance that another enemy will do the same in a
part of the world where there are no nuc's at present.
Next week LA will hold it's annual Auto Show. My sons and a friend are going to
visit it on the 11th. I'll be most interested in the Hybrid gasoline/electric
cars
by Honda, Toyota and (promised) from Ford and other US Companies. I'll also be
interested in the Ultra-low emissions cars from companies like Nissan. I hope to
get good data on emissions as well as fuel consumption.
I am one of a group of retired engineers who like to discuss energy matters on
the web. We think the hybrid concept is one of the most promising proposals for
reducing fuel consumption and greenhouse emissions. Especially attractive would
be a hybrid employing a diesel engine with "clean" (low S) fuel. The Prius stops
it's ICE when driving slowly or stopped. Since a diesel consumes almost no fuel
at idle, it would not need this complication.
I understand that there is now 10 ppm Sulfur diesel fuel available in Germany
and Scandinavia, at a slight premium to regular, low S diesel (50ppm). Detroit
has also been investigating diesels intensively and there is now a move to
reduce S in US diesel through Federal Law. (CA adopted a "clean" diesel law more
than 10 years ago; I don't know what the S content is.)
I'm also interested in Honda's continuously variable transmission. (The manual
transmission version of the Impulse is hard to drive because of the strange gear
changing strategy it needs, especially in hilly country, like CA). Several
vehicles have appeared in the past with CVT, but all failed - I think because
they were not reliable. If Honda can make it reliable then it seems ideal for a
hybrid.
When do you start your trip? If already on it, I hope it is going well.
With my best regards,
Ron
Saturday, January 11, 2003 10:25 AM
COMPUTER WARS #73876
Dear Greenwood,
It's hard to believe, but I'm still enmeshed in the computer game.
My old computer locked up yet again last week. It got into an unending loop when
booting. Nothing seemed to help.
I bought a new computer, more than 8 times faster (the slowest, most basic one
the dealer had). That is working fine, my problems are with email! There has
been no problem with my ISP (Earthlink), but I've been unable to get the browser
(Netscape) to work properly. Worse, it seems to send email, but doesn't actually
do so. I wasted a week before finding this out.
Finally, after endless conversations with support and massive efforts, I've
given up and am now using Microsoft's Outlook Express. I THINK it's working.
Please let me know if you receive this email. Then I can start to write again.
Thanks,
Ron
2003/1/11 10:53
Re: COMPUTER WARS #73876
Dear Ron,
Yes, I received your mail.
I imagined that your computer failed again.
I am afraid it is MS strategy to chase Netscape out of the market.
Greenwood
2003/1/16 21:49
Oval Office
Dear Ron,
We are going to start to Spain and Portugal from January 18 to 30.
Greenwood
Monday, January 20, 2003 9:49 AM
COMPUTERS AND VACATIONS
Dear Greenwood.
As I write, I realize that you are now in Spain (or Portugal). However, since
it's been so long since I've written, I feel I can leave this for you on your
return.
I visited the web site of capcanaille. The area where you are going to stay in
France looks very beautiful. It is still possible that we could make it, but
your daughter's comment on the difficulty in booking later is a bit ominous.
Please let us know how you are set up, dates and so on, with any other
information you get about the area - possibly from the manager about other
places nearby. I'm trying to remember how many Francs there are to the Euro! The
apartment you are looking at seems very reasonable (even with the new, weak $).
Your mother must be a remarkable woman. To live in such a cold place at her age
is something that few can do. I'm afraid both of my parents died over 30 years
ago; my father was still working at the time. I think I may be the oldest male
on both my parents' sides of the family. Males in our family tend to have short
life expectancy and long generations (my father was 36 when I was born, Bill was
born when I was 32). Live grandparents are very rare, let alone great
grandparents. No good news yet from either of my sons! However, they often bring
up the topic of children, so our hopes are still there. (We, of course, must
refrain from asking).
The new computer is running well and I have finally got most of the things set
up as I like them. The computer vendor's support is better than some similar
services, but still has its limitations. Most of the things I've had difficulty
with are where the latest Windows, "XP" differs from the older versions I was
familiar with. Once again, the biggest problem is with the time all this takes.
The comment about the heavy motor and the bike suspension system sounds strange
to me. After all the wheel is not suspended from the suspension. Thus, a
frame-mounted motor is suspended while a wheel-mounted one is not - especially
with a rear wheel motor. Perhaps the problem is the large gyroscopic forces the
motor would add to the wheel, preventing proper steering.
In this country discussion of low-pollution and high fuel economy cars has
become much more widespread. I think the possibility of going to war in Iraq is
finally making people aware that our extremely high energy consumption makes us
very vulnerable to the Middle East countries. People are remembering the '70's
with the great OPEC-induced shortage of oil. Suddenly, Detroit (which was
claiming it would destroy the economy to pass laws requiring increased fuel
efficiency) has discovered it can increase gas mileage on big and small cars by
10 to 50% without sacrificing performance. Even General Motors is claiming to
have many hybrids coming to market.
My sons and I visited the LA Auto show, which was quite disappointing. I hoped
to get some data about emissions from the new hybrid and other low-pollution
cars, especially from Toyota and Honda. I looked in vain for ANY numerical
information - NONE was available on any brand.
The few salesmen who even understood the question directed me to their websites,
which is where I'll head next. I don't expect anything there either. (Did you
hear that Toyota has passed Chevy to second place behind Ford in brand car sales
in the US)?
I hope that you enjoyed your busy vacation in Iberia, and that all is well at
home on your return.
Best regards,
Ron
2003/2/2 14:37
Re: COMPUTERS AND VACATIONS
Dear Ron,
We are safely back from Iberian trip as scheduled and hastily wrote report of
the trip. In English version of my website, you can see some of the photos,
which my wife took. I learned a lot about Spain and Portugal by reading books
before the trip and actually seeing it and hearing talks of the guides.
Now I feel I understood European history better than before. We have run more than 4,000 km like a pilgrim of medieval time. We actually met an old pilgrim lady in Santiago de Compostela. We were lucky to share her happiness by seeing her suntan face showing deep joy of satisfaction.
Last night, when I finished editing and uploaded my report I heard a sad news of Columbia and watched TV until 2 o'clock in the morning. I felt very sorry for the family of 7 astronauts. Two fatal accidents in 100 flights are still very high rate compared with commercial airline operation. For engineer like me, the cause of accidents is always very interesting. I would like to watch coming news carefully.
I have made a reservation on capcanaille from June 14 to 28. Only one room for a couple is available from this Lady called Charlotte Vidal-Rebattu. But my daughter said she might be able to introduce nearby accommodation. Her e-mail address is leressac3@wanadoo.fr. The rental for the period is Euro 1100 for 2 weeks. And deposit of 25% of the rental by end of April. I am a bit surprised because the web site capcanaille.com is now under construction. I will confirm with this lady. Euro and $ is now almost comparable.
Probably because of the fish and vegetable rich food we take, life expectancy of Japanese is longer than European. I was surprised to hear that a friend in England in same generation died last year. As you experienced, I was also puzzled with Windows XP in the beginning but now I am satisfied because it is more stable.
When you are riding a bike, it is more conformable when the wait ratio of wheel and frame of bike is small. Thus normally motor is mounted on the frame. In the case of direct driven motors, the ratio increases and spoils the riding feeling.
I was surprised to hear that Mr. Bush will promote
development of hydrogen driven car. I think there are many things to be done
before that. Toyota once said that their hybrid car could run 30km/l. This is a
remarkable figure because my Harley Davidson runs only 25km/l. Toyota, Honda and
Sony gained historical record in profit. All other Japanese companies are
gloomy.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
2003/2/5 13:49
Re: Studio rental Cassis
Dear Ron,
I found Spain solved the problem of declining population and maintaining pension by introducing immigrant from abroad. But they are paying cost of increasing crime. In the second day, one of our travel member's bag containing a camera in it was stolen while a young lady coming out from a lift to the lobby dropped a cellular phone in front of him. But luckily he chased the man who took his bag to the waiting car out side the hotel and recovered it after a small fight. They were a group of 4 people. This brave man was at the age of 70s and experienced heart surgery some time ago.
I hope your wife could recover from her health problem completely and we can meet some time next year.
Taking hard stance to Iraq is OK for blocking Saddam from further action but actually attacking Iraq may bring many drawbacks to US and allies. I hope Mr. Bush continue taking hard stance to Saddam regime and give warm face to his people and let Iraqi people decide by themselves.
Asahi Pentax announced a new camera called "Optio S". It weighs only 98 grams and 3 x zoom lens and 3.2million pixels CCD. But it is a bit expensive though.
Nobel Prize Prof. Fainmann once said that NASA was playing Russian Roulette when he headed investigation team of Challenger blowout in 1986. If the cause of Columbia disintegration is damaging heat resistant seal portion of landing gear box cover by falling urethane foam and ice from external fuel tank, again NASA may be criticized that they were playing Russian Roulette.
Mileage figures in CITY and on the HIGHWAY depend on the driving system design, weight of the car and test mode including speed in city and highway and frequency of stoppage and idling time. I think EPA mileage is based on a fixed test mode for comparison purpose only and does not represent actual running conditions for different situation. User can select most suitable one from different designs for his own purpose.
As you pointed out, hydrogen fuel will not improve global
warming. It is a fuel when we lost all fossil fuel in hand. I think hydrogen
fuel is a
propaganda of automobile industries to avoid public criticism against them and
enhance public acceptance. But I was a bit surprised to hear that Bush
administration is going to promote development of hydrogen fuel. Probably it is
also a propaganda for his election.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
Wednesday, February 05, 2003 11:02 AM
Re: Studio rental Cassis
Dear Greenwood,
I'm glad your Iberian vacation was so successful. 440 pictures! Even more than I
took in Paris. They were most interesting - especially the famous Templo
Expiatorio, the windmills of La Mancha, Porto and the Moorish Architecture,
still so evident all these years later. I've still not bought a digital camera.
They have already reached my target of a 2 megapixel camera with 3:1 optical
zoom for < $200, but I have decided to wait until a very small one (such as the
ELPH) reaches that price point. Perhaps next year.
Thanks for this and other information about Cassis. My wife seems to be
recovered from her health problems, but is worried about the world situation, in
particular the possibility of war this spring. So, we have decided not to go
outside the country right now. I'm disappointed that we'll not be able to see
each other this summer, but hope another opportunity will come along later. A
vacation with you and your wife would still be a great idea.
Opinion here is ever more divided about Iraq. If the Security Council did not
approve a war then only 51% of Americans would support a war with our allies.
With Security Council approval this % increases to 65. I feel that one factor in
making Bush impatient is the steady erosion of support for the war. There are
demonstrations in many US and British cities today on the theme of "no War for
Oil". Much will turn on what Colin Powell unveils tomorrow. Not many people here
think there will be strong evidence against Saddam.
While life expectancy is certainly better in Japan, I think there is a very wide
variance about the mean, at least in Western Countries. I, myself witnessed the
death of some on my contemporary coworkers during my working life. Some of them
were in their 40's and 50's. Recently, one of our founding members of the Strand
Brewers, a Chinese-American died in his 40's. Although he was of Chinese descent
he was one of the biggest of our members, so he certainly had an American
appetite. Our web site has a memorial to him.
The Columbia accident is saturating the news right now. It appears likely that
the tiles on the left wing were damaged during takeoff, leading to failure on
reentry. There are many quotations from engineers about the technical and
organizational details. Some complain bitterly about the "Cost-Cutting"
atmosphere at NASA in recent years and the dismissal of serious engineering
fears about safety. I think the whole US space exploration effort will be
thoroughly re-examined.
The other day the Bush administration submitted a budget with a record $300
billion projected deficit. This will probably be exceeded and is already bigger
than any deficit in the Reagan-Bush "42" years. I'm seriously considering
selling my long term bonds since they will lose a lot of value if the market
decides to notice the looming deficits. Even some Republican Senators are
beginning to complain. While the situation is not parallel to Japan 12 - 13
years ago, the possibility of a deflationary spiral looks more and more likely.
Needless to say, all concern about financing the retirement of the "Baby
Boomers" starting 5 years from now, has disappeared. We seem bent on passing our
greed onto future generations in spite of Bush's pious declaration in his State
of the Union speech "We will not pass along our problems to other Congresses, to
other presidents and other generations....". How cynical can you get?
Toyota seems to be discussing a different car from the Prius they sell here. The
EPA mileage figures are quoted as 23 km/l in the CITY and 20 on the HIGHWAY.
Note the surprising reversal of the otherwise universal rule that city mileage
is actually higher then the other. For comparison, the two Honda hybrids sold
here have corresponding numbers of: Civic - 21 / 23, Insight 27 / 30. Could
Toyota be talking about the Insight?
The Hydrogen powered fuel cell car is the latest blind alley. If H2 is made from
petroleum there is probably more air pollution and CO2 and less fuel efficiency
than by using gasoline and Hybrid cars. To make the H2 from electricity our
energy group calculates we'd need about and extra 33% electricity generating
capacity over the whole US present capacity. Very rough estimates of the cost of
generating the electricity and distributing the H2 are of the order of a
TRILLION $! Being new total cost for development for cells, cars and all will
probably be several Trillion. This sort of question is never asked when fuel
cells are being promoted. If pushed I expect the administration spokes men would
say that we can pay for it by more tax cuts for the rich. (That seems to be the
administration's answer to all problems).
Unhappy days, I'm afraid. Let us hope that war can be avoided.
Ron
2003/2/12 22:49
Great Truths About Growing Old:
Dear Ron,
My old friend forwarded about Great Truths About Growing Old:
Please enjoy.
Greenwood
1. Growing old is mandatory; growing up is optional.
2. You're getting old when you get the same sensation from a rocking chair that
you once got from a roller coaster.
3. It's frustrating when you know all the answers, but nobody bothers to ask you
the questions.
4. Time may be a great healer, but it's a lousy beautician.
5. Wisdom comes with age, but sometimes age comes alone.
2003/2/18 12:33
US POLITICS
Dear Greenwood,
The latest column (...Atlas Waffled, 2/16) from Paul Krugman gives a good report
on a growing awareness among Democrats about President Bush's economic policies.
I'd put it even more bluntly. His administration is single mindedly trying to
repeal all "Welfare State" laws passed between 1930 and today. They want to go
back to the Laisser-faire policies of the 20's, or even the 1890's.
Since there is no hope of actually canceling things like Social Security or
Medicare because they are very popular, he is systematically reducing Federal
taxation so that succeeding governments have the option of either reducing
spending massively or driving the country into enormous debts. Years ago one of
President Reagan's staff (John Dean) admitted that this was the real target of
the comparatively small tax cuts of the 80's.
The man in the middle is Alan Greenspan. He reversed the Reagan policies with
President Clinton's Treasury Secretary Rubin by pressuring them to increase
taxes and reduce the deficit. This policy succeeded very well, producing the
great economic performance of the 90's. In 2 years Bush has already destroyed
the surplus and is planning to pass even bigger tax cuts (only for the rich of
course). To camouflage the huge deficits as the Baby Boomers retire he is
looking only at the next few years as Krugman points out in his 2/07 column (Is
the Maestro a Hack?).
The encouraging thing is that, in spite of Krugman's pessimism, the focus here
is on what Greenspan said in his first statement. It is very possible that
enough Republican Senators will rebel so the Senate will refuse to go along with
this ruinous policy. Another encouraging thought is that Greenspan's statement
is regarded by some here as a preliminary to his retirement. The theory is that
he has finally had enough of the tax cut strategy and it's damage to the
country's future that he has decided that, if he is going to retire, he can
safely speak out now while he has his position of authority and trust.
A footnote to Krugman's column mentions Colin Powell. The administration's claim
that bin Laden's tape proves a tie between Hussein and Al Qaeda is incredibly
stupid. The fact that Powell had to make it really has undermined his own status
as an honest man. In listening to his statement to the Security Council I felt
that he is almost desperate. He persuaded the ("Chicken") hawks in the
Administration to go to the UN on the assumption that he could persuade the
Council to back the invasion of Iraq. Now that it looks as though France an
others may be able to block that, he is obviously stranded. His look and his
tone of voice reminded me of listening to Chinese Premier Zhu's farewell speech
when he was here to try to get trade concessions from the Clinton
Administration. Clinton had delivered little and I felt that Zhu had "stuck his
neck out" in the Chinese administration on the assumption that he could get
concessions from the US. Like Powell, his position at home was being undermined
by overseas countries.
Everybody here was very impressed by the massive demonstrations against war in
Iraq. Prime Minister Tony Blair must be shaken by the size of them in the UK.
Even our administration is making some moderate statements. One thing that few
commentators are stressing is the counter productive nature of Bush's statements
and policies. Among others I'm sure it provides great motives and opportunities
for Osama bin Laden and President Kim Jong Il.
The Korean threat is very much more important than that of Iraq, yet we are
unable to deal with it because of this focus on the latter. This could be a
tragic misjudgment that may permanently change the world in the worst direction.
Many can foresee a nuclear arms race in East Asia. I can only hope that China
can spare some energy from it's many domestic problems to use it's influence on
both N. Korea and the US to defuse the situation. The nightmare would be N.
Korea mass producing atomic bombs for sale to terrorists and other violent
organizations.
George Orwell may have been only 20 + years off.
Sadly, with best regards,
Ron
2003/2/24 11:22
Re: US POLITICS
Dear Ron,
I completely copy your views on current situations. Poor
Colin Powell. I felt that it is not his true belief when he said that bin
Laden's tape
proves a tie between Hussein and Al Qaeda. Here in Japan, it is reported that
Bush administration is under strong influence of Neo Conservatists like Richard
Perle called "Prince of Darkness" and Wolfowitz. They found 9.11 gave them a
good chance to achieve their belief. All of these people are introduced as New
York based Jews. It is said that their ambition is to place all Middle East
countries under Islaeri power. In the beginning, Colin Powell was against them
but now it seems he surrendered. He looks like stranded by France an others.
Probably French administration is backed up by massive demonstrations against
war in Iraq every where in the world except Japan. Probably, yesterday, Colin
Powel felt relaxed in Tokyo. Most Japanese decided to back up Colin Powell,
though they share worldviews on Bush administration. It is a selfish behavior
but they desperately need American power to block Kim Jong Il. I wonder what
papa Bush advises to his son.
If Greenspan wishes to be remembered by American people long time, he should leave his position soon. Colin Powell's miss judgement is that he didn't. If this trend continues another 2 years, I contemplate that it might take another 10 years to recover from difficulties derived from inappropriate policy taken by Bush administration.Our life is not so long.
Yesterday, while visiting department store with my wife, I found price level sharply dropped. Now it is almost half of a couple years ago. If our pension level continues on current level it is like living in heaven. But without exception, our pension level is adjusted according to the average price level.
I have never considered having PDA (Personal Digital Assistance) in the past because it has no hard keyboard. But recently, I decided to have it, because new model has built-in keyboard. I selected Sony Clie PEG-NX60. Clie adopted Palm OS. I liked it. It instantly activates with a touch of start button. I can share data like schedule, address, to do list, memo, word and excel data with PC by pushing Hot Sync button. Information flow is reciprocal i.e. I can modify data in my PC by PDA and vise versa. Sonny added additional function of viewing photo, video, music and even map. I down loaded free MP3 encoder made by Tord Jansson in Sweden and converted 4 minutes music from CD and compressed it into 1/10 file size. The quality of the sound is great. I can store up to 20 music in a Memory Stick of 128Mb capacity. This solid state Walkman and notebook with built-in hard keyboard is handy. It weighs only 220gr.
I didn't select it, but Sony started selling Clie PEG-NX90.
It has a built-in camera of 2 million pixel resolutions. It is a little bit
heavier
but lighter than carrying camera and PDA separately. My next interest is
connecting PDA to cdmaOne cellular phone now I carry and create mobile Internet
connectivity. Anyway, this is a way of using my ample time.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
Saturday, March 01, 2003 8:14 PM
Christian Fundamentalist
Dear Ron,
After my previous mail I learned that Neo Conservatists are having a web site
called "Project for the New American Century".
http://www.newamericancentury.org
The chairman is William Kristel who was a secretary for Dan Quayle. In this
site, I have found many famous names like Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld,
Paul Wolfowitz, Jeb Bush, Steve Forbes, and Francis Fukuyama. Today, I have seen
TV program claiming that Mr. Bush is a Christian Fundamentalist.
In his administration, Secretary of Justice, John Ashcroft is also a Christian
Fundamentalist.
It is said that Dan Quayle also shares the same belief. That is to say that Neo
Conservatists = Christian Fundamentalist. Now I understand that the
war against Iraq is the Crusades and could not stop it by outsider. It is not a
war seeking oil but belief.
Regards,
Greenwood
Tuesday, March 04, 2003 4:04 PM
Re: Christian Fundamentalist
Dear Ron,
I realized my former mail constitute a chain mail. If many people feels like me,
the Internet will be flooded please do not dispatch.
Thank you,
Greenwood
2003/3/5 6:36
Re: Christian Fundamentalist
Dear Greenwood,
Thank you for the petition. It seems to be wonderfully
International and may help rein in the wild men in the Bush administration.
My current feeling is still very conflicted. On the one hand, as we have
discussed, the behavior of GWB et al is amazingly naive and gives much comfort
to our enemies while alienating our allies.
However, on the other hand is the plight of the Iraqi people. Saddam Hussein is
one of the worst criminally violent thugs we have seen; perhaps since the death
of Joseph Stalin. My anger at the Bush administration stems partly from the
feeling that their behavior may be damaging the case against him. I must admit
that I do agree with the statement that Hussein would have made absolutely no
concessions without the present military pressure. Until recently I hoped that
President Bush was actually playing a sophisticated game using Powell and
Rumsfeld as "Good Cop / Bad Cop" so as to get Hussein to yield.
Now, I feel that Bush has gone over 100% to the Hawk side and plans to go to war
regardless of world opinion or lack of UN sanction.
The "Dove" approach as advocated by France and Germany will just continue the
game Hussein has been playing all these years. Nations will soon lose interest
or start to seek financial advantage for themselves and Hussein will continue in
power and will continue to rearm. Somehow, the world must come up with an
intermediate policy which can guarantee that Hussein is boxed in and unable to
do this, but without invading Iraq (ideally he'd be persuaded to go into exile).
So, my focus is on the Security Council. Perhaps Powell and Blair along with
others can bridge this gulf between allies.
Perhaps the most encouraging thing is that Bush's arrogance is already hindering
his plans. The way they handled negotiations with Turkey is a textbook case of
how to alienate an ally. I'd rank it among his worst blunders, right after
calling for a "Crusade" (after 9/11) and for signaling N. Korea and Iran that
they will be next in his "Axis of Evil" speech. The acceleration of Korea and
Iran's nuclear weapons programs must be seen as simple prudence given the clear
threat he made.
Its interesting that you mention the New Amer. Century business. It's become a
big topic here too. However, while it's true that many of the members of the
project are Christian Fundamentalists, there are also non-believers and several
Jews there. One of the saddest by products of the dispute with Europe is the
taunt "Anti-Semitic" against the Europeans by some of this camp. Yet another way
they are undermining the allies, the UN and NATO.
The developments in the digital world continue to flood out. I've not really
considered a PDA. I'm already wasting too much time on the computer and worry it
would only add to that. It is almost 5 years since I retired. At first, like
you, I found ample time. Bit by bit, though, I've become more busy. One tends to
add "duties" - self imposed. So now I'm in the mode of policing the things I
take up! Rather like budgeting. If I want to take something up I have to find
something to discard. Very difficult, especially with family demands always
there!
Best regards,
Ron
Thursday, March 13, 2003 9:53 AM
Re: Christian Fundamentalist
Dear Greenwood,
I'm afraid the news about Iraq continues to get worse. Many people here now
think that an invasion (perhaps by the US alone) may occur very soon.
Increasingly it looks as though President Bush has been backed into a corner by
the failure to reach agreement with the Security Council. Secretary Rumsfeld's
misguided remarks about being able to do without Britain's help have not only
caused much dismay for the British Govt; but also indicate a dangerous frame of
mind among the hawks.
Incidentally there is a very interesting Israeli website which has often scooped
the world on Middle East news. You may be interested in visiting it at
www.debka.com
More and more I am impressed by the fact that leaders of both sides of the war
on terrorism (bin Laden and Bush) are religious fundamentalists. Both claim that
"God is on our Side". Soon, such people stop all thinking and lash out in blind
anger at the heretical opposition. This is why so many of the most vicious and
murderous wars have been based on religion - and why they seem to last for
centuries, if not millennia. It is our misfortune to be in a situation where
both sides are prepared to fight using every weapon in the modern chamber of
horrors. Oddly, Saddam Hussein is the only non-religious fanatic involved.
However, the King of N.Korea is determined to take advantage of US's
distraction. This is the main peril for the world. To make matters worse, GWB's
own style of diplomacy ( calling him a "pygmy") has probably succeeded in
introducing atomic weapons into Korea. Soon they will be on sale to El Qaeda and
any others with money to pay.
Paul Krugman's colleague at the NYT, Thomas Friedman, had an excellent column
yesterday "Grapes of Wrath". I think he has things pretty correct and gives a
good insight into the feeling of many level-headed Americans about Bush and
Iraq. These days I read about as many of his columns as I do
Krugman's.
Best regards,
Ron
2003/3/13 13:50
Re: Christian Fundamentalist
Dear Ron,
Thomas Friedman's column, "Grapes of Wrath" was very persuasive. I also found a
column, "It Good for the Jews?" by Bill Keller was interesting too. I felt like
that all NY times columnists started campaign saying that it is Mr. Bush's
failure to allow so called "the conspiracy theory" spread among the world
including his belief in Christian Fundamentalist. He should explain what he
would do after Sadam.
Japanese government is also stuck in supporting Mr. Bush seeking for his potential power against N. Korea. I have read Israeli website and found that Japanese media covers almost all articles. Every day, I am watching BBC, CNN and ABC TV News programs through NHK satellite system. Soon we will see whether he is a great President or just a dumb President. (passed self censorship)
A week ago, I have seen a very old English movie made in 1940
and called "The Thief of Baghdad" I remembered that this is a movie that I had
seen it in my childhood. Guided by impulse, I listed up all old movies that
couldn't forget and found that there are almost 40 movies. Then I found an
interesting phenomena. Numbers of movies what I couldn't forget reaches peak at
13-22 years old and decline sharply afterward. It again increased after 53.
Probably I was too busy working in my 30s and 40s. I have disclosed the name of
movies in my web site. Could you check and tell me how many movies you have seen
and appreciated them?
Best Regards,
Greenwood
Tuesday, March 18, 2003 8:49 AM
KOREA
Dear Greenwood,
It seems there is nothing more to say about Iraq, since George Bush is about to
invade. He's taking a big gamble with all of our lives, but we just have to see
how things turn out. The Stock market seems to like the removal of uncertainty
and is well up here today. The longer term is much in doubt.
This weekend I read a perceptive column on N. Korea. The point, which has been
completely ignored here, is that the collapse of Kim Jong Il's regime would be
absolutely catastrophic for S. Korea and, slightly less so, for China. They
would both be inundated by countless refugees. Japan, too would be seriously
affected. This explains the disconnect between the US and N. Korea's neighbors.
It seems that the only Pacific power not aware of this risk is the US. Our
Government is completely focused on Iraq and Tax Cuts.
I am attaching the column for your perusal. I'd appreciate your comments.
Best regards,
Ron
Friday, March 21, 2003 8:07 AM (2003/3/22 1:07JPN time)
Re: KOREA2
Dear Ron,
I am spending most of my time watching TV in those days. Like missiles, video
images are falling down towards us from everywhere.
I made up many hypotheses and saw the results soon. Some was correct and some
wasn't. But unlike previous war in Iraq about 10 years ago I felt a bit sad.
My friend who worked once for Bechtel told me an interesting
information. He said his friend in Bechtel told him that many French and German
companies helped Iraq in rebuilding after previous war, but they are still in
the process of recovering remaining debt from Iraq.
My guess is that French took an advantage over US in the future world. They
probably thought that this war might not be a wise selection for US. In
contrast, Japanese government has no free hand. They supported US regardless
what happens. Although Japan is the second largest financial supporter of UN,
Japan has no power in UN. Because UN's basic structure is still based on the
results of World War II.
I am now thinking to fly to France in Air France in coming June. I hope it may be a little bit safer. An article about North Korea opened my eyes. I wondered why Former President Kim Dae Jong's adopted "sunshine policy. I think it is also true that a divided Korea is safer than a united Korea for both China and Japan.
Japanese still remember historical nightmare of Chinese-Korean alliance invaded Japan in 1281. But personally, I think if Mr. Bush hastily remove Kim Jong Il in a similar manner like Sadam, the situation may bring a fortune to Japan by the short-term sacrifice of South Korea. Because Japan can approach Russia seeking for their oil and gas resources. In the long run, South East Asia may be stabilized and can form a kind of economic block like EU.
Most of Japanese electronic companies started to define a
standard specification for methanol fuel cell for portable electronic equipment.
In
the near future, we may be charging methanol to our PC during a flight and
ethanol to ourselves.
My sister living with my mother wasted almost 1 hour trying
to teach navigational equipment in her Toyota car a destination point of her
travel to nearby town. She said that she strictly followed manual but the
equipment cursor floated randomly. She asked me why. I soon found out the cause
of the trouble. She parked her car in her garage at that time. Navigational
equipment couldn't find the starting point. It is blinded by garage shelter.
Cruise missiles flying over Iraq are also relying on the same satellite system.
I wish a happy ending for US and for Britons.
Greenwood
2003/3/27 5:21
Re: KOREA
Dear Greenwood,
The US is in a strange state of suspended animation. For a short while last week
there seemed to be the chance that the war would soon be over. As you know the
stock market rocketed upwards. Now, things are looking much less hopeful. Today
we got the news of the first big civilian loss of life in Baghdad. Naturally
Hussein and most Arabs are claiming the US is now desperate because they are
losing the war. The US military says they had not targeted the area, but that a
missile could have been "deflected" by anti-aircraft fire. It seems Al Qaeda
must be getting many recruits.
Not much discussed, but very significant to my way of thinking, is the lack of
discovery of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). Certainly the Iraqis have not
used any so far. What little credibility George Bush's war has will depend on
finding many WMD. Some are already speculating that he may well plant some of
them to try to justify his actions.
As you can guess, opinion here is very polarized. The initial polls show the
usual increase in support when troops go into the field. However, that seems to
be fleeting. Many Republicans, including some of my conservative friends, are
beginning to get increasingly negative about GWB. Yesterday in the US Senate,
three Republicans voted with the Democrats to reduce Bush's tax cut by more than
50%. If you are reading Paul Krugman you know how wrong this tax cut is.
Another example of Bush paying off his sponsors can be seen in the hasty award
of the first Iraq rebuilding contract to Kellogg-Brown and Root - a subsidiary
of Dick Cheney's old company, Halliburton. Fluor, too, is well placed to get big
contracts along with a handful of other large US engineering companies. Needless
to say European and Asian contractors will be fighting over crumbs - even
British companies it seems.
The other day one of the most influential of the "Chicken-Hawks" - Richard
Perle, the present Head of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board, signed a
contract as consultant to the bankrupt Global Crossing Co. They would like to
sell their fiber optic network to a Hong Kong firm, with close ties to Beijing.
This is opposed by both the Defense Department and the FBI. Perle signed a
contract for $725,000 to get the contract approved. An amazing $600,000 will be
awarded only if he is successful. Many people are stunned by such obvious
cronyism. These people seem to recognize no moral or legal restraints of any
type.
So, "W"'s gamble with the world is getting bigger and bigger. I hope it becomes
so obvious that a huge majority of Americans join the huge majority of the world
in rejecting him before he does even more damage.
Ron
2003/3/27 23:31
Re: KOREA
Dear Ron,
Among many words, I heard or read in the past one week, an appeal from Gunter
Grass, a Nobel Prize Laureate in Literature represented my feeling on current
situations. I found that I share same feeling about America like him because
probably he is a German who lived in the time of World War II and post wartime.
In this sense, I feel very happy to have a friend in America like you. When I
heard our Mr. Koizumi started using the same wording like Weapons of Mass
Destruction (WMD) which Mr. Bush very much likes, I thought that he shouldn't
use it. Otherwise, he would be embarrassed later. He used it as a reason of
supporting US.
I also found a short speech made by Mr. Michael Moore in accepting the Academy award for "Bowling for Columbine" was very entertaining. Yes, I am reading Paul Krugman's article every week. After 5 years later, Mr. Koizumi is now relying on his recommendations. In his latest column he wrote, There's something happening here. What it is ain't exactly clear, but a good guess is that we're now seeing the next stage in the evolution of a new American oligarchy. As Jonathan Chait has written in The New Republic, in the Bush administration "government and business have melded into one big "us".
It is also reported here that Kellogg-Brown and Root was
awarded a contract and even British firm is finding difficulty to find job
there.
Any way, next election is coming in 2004.
Best regards,
Greenwood
2003/3/28 13:22
MICHAEL MOORE
Dear Greenwood,
Michael Moore is a very convincing communicator. Today he had a column in
the LA Times.
Ron
COMMENTARY
I'd Like to Thank the Vatican...
Michael Moore fesses up to his Oscar day 'mistake' -- going to Mass first.
By Michael Moore
March 27, 2003
Michael Moore won an Academy Award for "Bowling for Columbine."
A word of advice to future Oscar winners: Don't begin Oscar day by going to
church.
That is where I found myself this past Sunday morning, at the Church of the Good
Shepherd on Santa Monica Boulevard, at Mass with my sister and my dad. My
problem with the Catholic Mass is that sometimes I find my mind wandering after
I hear something the priest says, and I start thinking all these crazy thoughts
like how it is wrong to kill people and that you are not allowed to use violence
upon another human being unless it is in true self-defense.
The pope even came right out and said it: This war in Iraq is not a just war
and, thus, it is a sin.
Those thoughts were with me the rest of the day, from the moment I left the
church and passed by the homeless begging for change (one in six American
children living in poverty is another form of violence), to the streets around
the Kodak Theater where antiwar protesters were being arrested as I drove by in
my studio-sponsored limo.
I had not planned on winning an Academy Award for "Bowling for Columbine" (no
documentary that was a big box-office success had won since "Woodstock"), and so
I had no speech prepared. I'm not much of a speech-preparer anyway, and besides,
I had already received awards in the days leading up to the Oscars and used the
same acceptance remarks. I spoke of the need for nonfiction films when we live
in such fictitious times. We have a fictitious president who was elected with
fictitious election results. (If you still believe that 3,000 elderly Jewish
Americans -- many of them Holocaust survivors -- voted for Pat Buchanan in West
Palm Beach in 2000, then you are a true devotee to the beauty of fiction!) He is
now conducting a war for a fictitious reason (the claim that Saddam Hussein has
stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction when in fact we are there to get the
world's second-largest supply of oil).
Whether it is a tax cut that is passed off as a gift to the middle class or a
desire to drill holes in the wilds of Alaska, we are continually bombarded with
one fictitious story after another from the Bush White House. And that is why it
is important that filmmakers make nonfiction, so that all the little lies can be
exposed and the public informed. An uninformed public in a democracy is a
sure-fire way to end up with little or no democracy at all.
That is what I have been saying for some time. Millions of Americans seem to
agree. My book "Stupid White Men" still sits at No. 1 on the bestseller list
(it's been on that list now for 53 weeks and is the largest-selling nonfiction
book of the year). "Bowling for Columbine" has broken all box-office records for
a documentary. My Web site is now getting up to 20 million hits a day (more than
the White House's site). My opinions about the state of the nation are neither
unknown nor on the fringe, but rather they exist with mainstream majority
opinion. The majority of Americans, according to polls, want stronger
environmental laws, support Roe vs. Wade and did not want to go into this war
without the backing of the United Nations and all of our allies.
That is where the country is at. It's liberal, it's for peace and it is only
tacitly in support of its leader because that is what you are supposed to do
when you are at war and you want your kids to come back from Iraq alive.
In the commercial break before the best documentary Oscar was to be announced, I
suddenly thought that maybe this community of film people was also part of that
American majority and just might have voted for my film, which, in part, takes
on the Bush administration for manipulating the public with fear so it can
conduct its acts of aggression against the Third World. I leaned over to my
fellow nominees and told them that, should I win, I was going to say something
about President Bush and the war and would they like to join me up on the stage?
I told them that I felt like I'd already had my moment with the success of the
film and that I would love for them to share the stage with me so they could
have their moment too. (They had all made exceptional films and I wanted the
public to see these filmmakers and hopefully go see their films.)
They all agreed.
Moments later, Diane Lane opened the envelope and announced the winner: "Bowling
for Columbine." The entire main floor rose to its feet for a standing ovation. I
was immeasurably moved and humbled as I motioned for the other nominees to join
my wife (the film's producer) and me up on the stage.
I then said what I had been saying all week at those other awards ceremonies. I
guess a few other people had heard me say those things too because before I had
finished my first sentence about the fictitious president, a couple of men (some
reported it was "stagehands" just to the left of me) near a microphone started
some loud yelling. Then a group in the upper balcony joined in. What was so
confusing to me, as I continued my remarks, was that I could hear this noise but
looking out on the main floor, I didn't see a single person booing. But then the
majority in the balcony -- who were in support of my remarks -- started booing
the booers.
It all turned into one humungous cacophony of yells and cheers and jeers. And
all I'm thinking is, "Hey, I put on a tux for this?"
I tried to get out my last line ("Any time you've got both the pope and the
Dixie Chicks against you, you're not long for the White House") and the
orchestra struck up its tune to end the melee. (A few orchestra members came up
to me later and apologized, saying they had wanted to hear what I had to say.) I
had gone 55 seconds, 10 more than allowed.
Was it appropriate? To me, the inappropriate thing would have been to say
nothing at all or to thank my agent, my lawyer and the designer who dressed me
-- Sears Roebuck. I made a movie about the American desire to use violence both
at home and around the world. My remarks were in keeping with exactly what my
film was about. If I had a movie about birds or insects, I would have talked
about birds or insects. I made a movie about guns and Americans' tradition of
using them against the world and each other.
And, as I walked up to the stage, I was still thinking about the lessons that
morning at Mass. About how silence, when you observe wrongs being committed, is
the same as committing those wrongs yourself. And so I followed my conscience
and my heart.
On the way back home to Flint, Mich., the day after the Oscars, two flight
attendants told me how they had gotten stuck overnight in Flint with no flight
-- and wound up earning only $30 for the day because they are paid by the hour.
They said they were telling me this in the hope that I would tell others.
Because they, and the millions like them, have no voice. They don't get to be
commentators on cable news like the bevy of retired generals we've been watching
all week. (Can we please demand that the U.S. military remove its troops from
ABC/CBS/NBC/CNN/MSNBC/Fox?) They don't get to make movies or talk to a billion
people on Oscar night. They are the American majority who are being asked to
send their sons and daughters over to Iraq to possibly die so Bush's buddies can
have the oil.
Who will speak for them if I don't? That's what I do, or try to do, every day of
my life, and March 23, 2003 -- though it was one of the greatest days of my life
and an honor I will long cherish -- was no different.
Except I made the mistake of beginning it in a church.
If you want other stories on this topic, search the Archives at
latimes.com/archives.
2003/3/28 15:52
Re: MICHAEL MOORE
Dear Ron,
Thank you for the comment of Michael Moore. I distributed it to my friend.
After reading Prof. Krugman's article in NY times, I am pleased to learn that
Richard Perle resigned because of his scandal. Situation seems going well.
Best regards,
Greenwood
Wednesday, April 02, 2003 1:07 PM
VACATION
Dear Greenwood,
It seems the war is going to be around for a while. I'm glad you enjoyed Michael
Moore's column. Believe me, people here are very polarized about the war. While
support is high now, I suspect it will slowly erode as the war grinds on and
casualties rise. Even when the war is "Won" I expect suicide bombings to
continue and casualties to keep on rising. Then you'll see how long Americans
will stand for the new "Imperial" USA.
Like many here, we have decided to stay in the country for our vacation. We've
chosen to visit the State of New Mexico. We have been there once before, when we
traveled from Chicago to LA on (what else?) route 66. Unfortunately, when we
were there, Connie was sick. Therefore, although Bill and Peter got to look
around Santa Fe with me, she stayed in the motel room.
The Indian ruins I photographed in Arizona a few years ago are much less
important and interesting than those in NM. For many years we've wanted to see
them, and now we shall. On the way there and back we'll be looking into other
sights. For example, in Arizona, the famous Monument Valley, scene of
innumerable cowboy movies. I'll be sure to take many rolls of good film and will
send you my results. There is a great deal of history there too from the Spanish
days. In fact the oldest government building in continuous use in the country is
in Santa Fe - the Palace of the Governors, built in 1610. Not at all old by the
standards of Europe, still less than by those of east Asia, but truly venerable
here. As you can guess, we are busy digging out guide books and deciding where
to go. No doubt you are similarly engaged for the South of France.
We had a very interesting "training" session today. The LA County Museum of Art
(or LACMA as everyone calls it) had a double exhibit: "Ansel Adams at 100" and
"Sargent and Italy". Ansel Adams needs no introduction, he was born 100 years
ago. John Singer Sargent was a famous portrait painter who lived from 1856 to
1925 or so. This exhibit was not about his portraits, however. To take a break
from his "work" work, he spent a vacation every year in Italy. There he painted
mostly landscapes and pictures of Italians and his friends. These were very
interesting and quite unique in style. If you get the chance to see either show,
I'd recommend them highly - especially Adams, who was truly a genius. One thing
that I was not prepared for was the small size of many of his pictures. Some
were as small as 60 by 90 mm. Between the two shows I have many new insights
into pictures and hope they will improve my snapshots. One thing I'll try to do
is get out early before the sun gets too high for the best picture taking.
Let us hope for better news, but I do not know what we can expect in that
direction.
Best regards,
Ron
Thursday, April 10, 2003 7:42 AM
Re: VACATION
Dear Ron,
The war is almost over and stock market is declining. I am watching who will lead Iraq as a nation. Historically, the country is split into various groups. Probably, Sadam might be a child of those circumstances. Any way, I was happy to see that due to swift movement of Coalition forces, Sadam couldn'nt take citizen of Baghdad as hostages. This was what I most afraid of.
My friend mailed me an interesting view on current world situations using theory of geopolitics. He says that the world was split into two groups as listed below:
Sea Power Group: USA, UK, Spain, Australia, Japan, and S.
Korea
Land Power Group: France, Germany, Russia, China, Most of EC Countries, Canada,
and Mexico.
Although, theory of geopolitics is obsolete, but in this time, the split might explains the true meaning of the current war. Because of the war in Iraq, My wife lost interest in visiting South of France. As you have decided already, we have also decided to going around in Japan within this year.
I am grateful that you mentioned Ansel Adams and John Singer Sargent. I very much enjoyed the photos and paintings in :
And in
During the war, I worked hard on Biomass Gassification Project. A month ago, my friend asked me to help NPO for their Biomass Gassification Project. I volunteered to provide a basic design of the small unit. My endeavor was quite successful. I have made a report of entire design calculations done by spreadsheet. It was also introduced in English pages. Within the limited budget of the NPO, we have to fabricate the unit by ourselves. I wonder when we can complete the fabrication.
I wish your vacation in NM were enjoyable. Probably you can
take an exiting photo there.
Best Regard,
Greenwood
Monday, April 14, 2003 10:35 AM
Re: VACATION
Dear Greenwood,
The Biomass Gasification Project is fascinating. You are to be congratulated for
some very elegant thermodynamics and a presentation of great clarity. I always
think that one can tell how well an expert understands his subject by the
clarity of his explanation.
As far as I can tell without access to a process computer, the analysis is quite
correct. The only minor point I have is that I'm unable to verify your wood
energy content. My (1950!) version of Perry gives wood a wide variety of
energies, but mostly slightly lower than your assumption. But this is of no
consequence, since your engine efficiency is very conservative, so I believe
there should be no problem reaching 3.6 kW.
My main concerns are simple "nuts and bolts" questions. For example, I'm always
concerned when handling solid materials. They are notoriously prone to plugging
up and not behaving as one would wish. (It was a great relief for me when I
joined Fluor and scarcely ever had to confront solids). The use of a hand
powered blower is surprising. A simple motor driven blower would make
experimentation much easier by subtracting one person's duty. Finally, I
understand that for short term experimentation at about atmospheric pressure,
the material of construction is not too important. In the long term it would
have to faced, though. In my experience at Molten Metal Technology, parts of
which operated at about the temperature you are planning were a difficult
corrosion problem. Some quite exotic materials were needed because of small
quantities of Chlorides and other nasty compounds.
Incidentally, Fluor's old plant in South Africa which used to make transport
fuels from coal is still operating. Now they are able to import petroleum it is
uneconomic in it's original purpose, but has found new life as a source of
exotic organic compounds such as waxes, plasticizers and dyes. A latter day
version of the old Victorian Coal Gas facilities.
I'm sorry to hear that you have cancelled your vacation in France. However, I
can quite understand it. Our political situation is very tense. Most Americans
are supporting the President, but those who still think he was wrong are also
firm in their beliefs. Most discouraging of all is the bellicose attitude of
some of the pro-war people. There is a wonderful cartoon in today's LA Times,
which I'm enclosing. This summarizes the latter point of view. It should be of
manageable size, but sometimes I'm surprised at how big my files are, so
apologize if it's bigger than I think (about 200K).
The stock market seems to be secretly against the war, although most of the
stockbrokers feel the need to be "Patriotic" in public. They vote differently
with their money, it seems. Of course, now I've said that, the market will rise
strongly on Monday!
With my best regards to you both; I hope we all have enjoyable traveling
vacations.
Ron
Monday, April 14, 2003 11:50 PM
Subject: Re: VACATION
Dear Ron,
You have given me a very kind appraisal of my presentation. I appreciated it
very much. And you have given me a right comment on my weakest point. I have
made a quick estimation of wood energy content. Now I have made a more precise
calculation using heat of formation and found a slightly smaller figure as you
pointed out. I have revised my report accordingly. I have also included
composition of wood I assumed. I would like to attach my calculation sheets in
EXCEL format. I hope you can read it.
Wood will be charged in small sized chips. The movement given by car prevents plugging. During the World War II, many units were produced in Japan. I still remember a driver was charging wood in to Gassifier when I was a child. A simple buttery motor driven blower would be more appropriate and easy to fined one in the market like hair drier. But we felt hand driven blower might be more exiting for the people to join experiment. Probably it might be difficult to find.
It seemed that Shell plant in Malaysia also enjoy waxes
production too. I would like to see what Arab people would move to what
direction. Apparently Kim changed his mind and withdrawn difficult demands. The
cartoon in LA Times reached me without difficulty. I think UN has died this time
and difficult to come back. Probably the world has to rely on US for future
peace until time has come when US loose power.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
Tuesday, April 15, 2003 3:14 AM (Japan time19:14)
Re: VACATION
Dear Ron,
I can understand pax Romana, pax Britanica, pax Americana but POX Americanus is
difficult to understand. Could you explain?
Regards,
Greenwood
2003/4/16 3:33
Re: VACATION
It's a simple twist on George Bush's mispronunciation of words.
Another which is very popular now is that it's very easy to misunderestimate him
- conflating misunderstand and underestimate.
Ron
Tuesday, April 22, 2003 10:34 AM
Re: VACATION
Dear Greenwood,
I've taken a quick look at your spreadsheet. Quite an undertaking!
It looks good. There are one or two questions, but they do not interfere with
the general conclusions. From your comments about excitement and getting people
involved with the experiment I gather you are looking for a University setting
for the test program. I think that will be very popular in any University. If it
were possible, I'd like to take part myself.
My small doubts involve mostly the enthalpy calculations. I'm not sure that it
is accurate to integrate the Cp terms to derive enthalpy. (They are just "best
fit" curves after all). I suspect that is the reason for the rather strange
"Heat Loss" curve. This does not have any effect on the main conclusions, so my
comment can be disregarded as far as practical work is concerned. I'm also not
sure that flammability limits can be accurately estimated from mol-weighted
averages. I suspect there are secondary interference effects which would shift
the actual %'s. Again, unless there is a reason why the exact limits are needed,
this has no practical effect. It is clear that you are dealing with a gas which
is very easily ignited. I do hope that great care is used during experimentation
- especially important if College Students are involved!
After my vacation I'll try to take a longer look at the calculations, but am
sure there is no reason to doubt their overall conclusions. I'd be very
interested to hear how you and your group get on with fabricating the test
equipment and how the experimenting goes.
In the meantime I have succeeded in getting the Los Angeles Times to publish a
letter I wrote trying to debunk the present fad here over "Hydrogen Fuel" (A
favorite of a very strange group of bedfellows - Environmentalists, Oil
Companies, Car Companies and George Bush). The paper is generally very careful
to publish letters in the proportion pro- and con- that they receive. They
published three letters - ALL against the idea. I've attached the file of their
presentation.
I hope it's of interest. We leave on Wednesday and will return on the 2nd of
May. Best regards,
Ron
2003/4/22 13:02
Re: VACATION
Dear Ron,
Please disregard my calculations, which is in your hand. As I have found a
misuse of gas constant which belong to another unit system. I am redoing the
calculation and hope to complete it within today. I will send them to you as
soon as I complete. Probably, I have to select 700 deg. C for design operating
temperature instead of 800 deg. C. I am also doing precise engine heat cycle
calculation to find it's thermal efficiency. Integration of the Cp terms to
derive enthalpy is a standard procedure. I understand any process calculation
program use basically the same procedures. Therefore, accuracy of Cp is very
important. They use more updated Cp equations. The research done by AIChE is
standard. Anyway, I am using old equation of Cp which I picked up from my
Chemical Hand Hook published in 1960. I also have Perry HandBook. But I am still
busy working on debugging. This accuracy becomes critical when you handle engine
combustion. When I used nitrogen gas Cp for cylinder combustion gas containing
lots of CO2 of which Cp is very high, the thermal efficiency of the engine was
higher than 100%! I have to do it again using actual composition of the exhaust
gas. It is a very tedious calculation, indeed.
I am now confident that we can use small baggy car having 170cc, single cylinder, 4 cycle, 1800 rpm gasoline engine can run with wood gas. On my assurance, an owner of the baggy car has started procurement of reactor materials. Japanese pages already showing the picture of the buggy. I will translate it into English after completing recalculation.
The prime reason I am publishing my calculation is to make communication with sponsor NPO and with fabricator of the unit. I also wish to share the idea with young generation through Internet. My old colleague who was a leader of development of a process simulator in Chiyoda and current lecturer in Chemical Engineering Course in a University helped me in stoichiometric calculation portion. Your contribution is welcome. I am happy to introduce your activity in my website.
I quite agree your opinion on Hydrogen fuel. I respect L/A
Times for adopting you letter. Hydrogen fuel is only justifiable when it is
produced from water using electricity generated by solar cell. I do not know
when oil production start to decline, but once it start to decline, the higher
oil price will push this technology into main stream of the energy market.
I wish you a splendid vacation.
Greenwood
2003/4/23 2:29
Biogas car design
Dear Ron,
I have completed recalculation as attached. My HP was also revised accordingly.
Regards,
Greenwood
Saturday, May 17, 2003 7:12 AM
BACK FROM VACATION
Dear Greenwood,
We've just about caught up with all the accumulated duties from our absence on
vacation. Almost like coming back to work and finding that nobody had handled
things while you were away - so you have to do all the work that had piled up.
The trip was very good. We visited many Indian ruins and even some where the
residents were still in place. (The Pueblo at Taos has been occupied for 800 -
1000 years!) Santa Fe is an incredible place for getting both Indian artifacts,
and also a huge selection of fine arts - sculpture, painting, jewelry, etc. The
quality of the work there is unsurpassed.
I took many pictures and will be getting some ready for the internet after I've
finished sorting and evaluating them. The light in New Mexico is unique -
similar to Italy's, but much whiter and very bright. It's easy to understand why
Georgia O'Keefe's pictures look as they do. The polarizing filter my son bought
me last year worked very effectively. Some of the Blue Skies were almost
blue-black, with pure white, sharply etched clouds. A big part of the reason is
that northern New Mexico and Arizona are on a high plateau, over 2000 m, with
mountains rising to 4000 m. There was still plenty of snow in the higher
locations, above about 3000 m.
We were able to rent a Lexus from Toyota, courtesy of my son who works there,
for less than the running costs of my own car. On some of the dirt roads I was
glad that my car's suspension was not exposed to the treatment the Lexus got. On
the whole, however, we were disappointed with the car. It was extremely
comfortable, but at the cost of being very slow to respond to drivers' inputs.
It was actually a relief to get back into my 1987 Camry, which I normally find
to be my least responsive car! Another problem was that the dash was very hard
to see in daylight. The speedometer had a black dial with a black pointer!
Connie could not see how fast she was going if there was any sunshine in front
of the car. It was also full of very ingenious programs, which were
frustratingly complicated (The instruction manual was over 300 pages). Several
times the automatic windshield wipers started (apparently sensing rain) while we
were driving through the desert. We would have preferred the new hybrid Prius,
but all the available cars were already rented.
Today's paper reported that your lower House of Parliament passed some changes
to your defense law. Ostensibly because of the North Korean actions recently.
However, I put the blame squarely on the Bush Administration for threatening the
Koreans and starting a new arms race. His administration seems to be well on the
way to destroying not only the UN, but also breaking up with all our allies. I
fear a new world where might is right. Last week I heard that the US spends more
money on armaments than the next 14 countries combined. Bush is stepping up
military spending very rapidly while he cuts taxes. We are already running
record deficits and they will undoubtedly swell to unprecedented levels.
Now they are pressing Congress to allow them to restart nuclear testing. I
believe this is a truly insane action, which will develop technology (the
Wallet-sized nuclear bomb?) which will not strengthen us, but will result in new
threats to every country. Once technology is developed, nobody can prevent it's
proliferation.
Unfortunately, GWB is immensely popular and, as Al Qaeda kills more people, his
position is strengthened still more. Of course, that makes big profits for his
constituents in big business. The ex-CEO of Fluor, Philip J. Carroll, is now the
Pentagon's choice for administrating the reconstruction of Iraq's Oil industry.
He has admitted to having financial connections with the oil industry, but
claims he will distance himself from the oil contracting process. "Money is the
farthest thing from my mind" he said. This from a man whose salary at Fluor was
so big that my very pro-company ex-boss (a Senior VP) told me he thought the
salary to be outrageous! (As an interesting insight to the corrections of
corporate misconduct here - last year, while the stock market and corporate
profits were steeply down, top managers in this country averaged a 14% salary
increase. God knows what they'd settle for if profits actually rose.)
Like Paul Krugman, I'm at a loss to know how the population can be so easily
fooled by Bush's propaganda and deceits. Would that the Democrats could mount a
convincing campaign against this, but they seem incapable of it. So, I'm afraid
that "now the mission is accomplished" in Iraq, we'll all be in for even bigger
unraveling of all the successes of the 20th Century and will be back to the
Imperial and Robber Baron days of the 1890's. Every country for itself and devil
take the hindmost.
Yours in gloom,
Ron
2003/5/18 0:04
Re: BACK FROM VACATION
Dear Ron,
I am happy to hear from you that you and Conie have enjoyed the trip very much.
We do not have the clear vision like in New Mexico and Arizona. I think
California have better visibility than Japan. I still remember the time I
visited Las Vegas more than 40 years ago. If you have a nice picture please mail
some to me.
I felt your vacation was a long one. Because, during your trip, I spent most of my time in making many studies. First, I combined two programs for biomass gassification and engine analysis. Secondly, I automated it using Macro. Thirdly, I compared various feed stocks containing different water content and on charcoal. The reason I did this study is to find out whether Japanese government during world war II time had made a right decision on utilization of charcoal gas engine. I found wood gas engine is superior on conversion efficiency and power output. Finally, I made a study on gasturbine power plant burning gas generated from wood chips collected from 6,400 hectare (8km by 8km square area) of deciduous tree forest. It can generate 2.53MW at the cost of 6 cents/kWh with the condition of free lease of the national forest in the mountain district. I think it is not a bad idea. I am proposing the idea to a NPO in Yamanasi Prefecture. This is a small step towards preventing global warming. As you can imagine, our government is very slow to move. You can see it in my HP. I also found many coding errors. Most of my time was used for debugging. Please dispose my old Excel program. If you wish, I can send a new one. The size is bigger though. Now it is 27 pages and 380kb.
Buggy construction has just started. My friend who designed machining machine for gearbox of Lexus donated a kit for converting engine driven buggy to a hybrid car. But I am not happy because I have made many studies for low load operation and proved OK. The concept of hybrid is to stop engine during low efficiency operating period. During engine analyses, I clearly understood why reciprocating engine efficiency drops sharply at low load. Throttling at idling crate deep vacuum conditions in engine cylinder and consumes more power for compression. But in wood gas case, if you stop engine, gassification reaction also terminates and it is tedious work to start it again.
I share the feeling you felt when you have driven Lexus. Modern luxurious car like Lexus is fully automated and feels uneasy at the beginning. My daughter told me that when she passed near cemetery in midnight driving in Lexus, the on board NAVI started telling her that heaven is at your left-hand side. Actually at her left-hand side she found deep valley. Yes our Congress passed a law to give our government more freedom in military action in emergency.
I am afraid American media is also biased by owner's point of view. A German economist, Richard Wernar who was educated in Oxford and Tokyo University wrote an interesting book "Towards a New Macroeconomic Paradigm" This book was first published in Japan. English translation will be coming soon. He says mainstream Macroeconomics assumes Free Market assumption, which works properly to match demand and supply. French economist in 1860, Leon Warras described macroeconomics in beautiful mathematics based on this free market theory. But this simplification does not describe Bubble Economy of Japan in 1980s. He concluded that if we deny free market theory, it explains beautifully why Japan is struggling over 10 years regardless it's many remedial proposal from Macroeconomist. Finally, he proposes his plan based on his new theory. Although the logic is different, It is almost same as the proposal of Prof. Krugman. He says that BoJ do exactly same as before bubble economy except money flow to the land but for industry. But BoJ completely ignores him as if he does not exist.
As I am linked with ADSL, I tested Beach FM78.9 Radio and
Beach FM78.9 through Internet and found out that FM through Internet has batter
quality. Beach FM78.9 is a very small local music radio broadcasting station
located in near-by marina. You can see a view through fixed camera of a sailing
boat cruising out of the harbor. Listening this Beach FM78.9, I found many
American listener living some where like Kingman is making request through
Internet. Apparently, he once stayed in US Naval base in Yokosuka and he might
be familiar with this radio station, but I felt Internet shrank the Globe in a
small community. Please check this radio station. It is: http://www.beachfm.co.jp/
After opening the English page, please push BB streaming button of the Beach
FM78.9.
Yours truly,
Greenwood
2003/5/24 9:40
PREMIER KOIZUMI'S VISIT
Dear Greenwood,
It's a pleasure and an honor to be hosting your Prime Minister. It seems that
the belligerent tone of the North Koreans may be backfiring, since President
Bush seems to be lining up Korea's neighbors to resist their nuclear ambitions.
As you know we recently welcomed President Roh; President Bush has also saluted
President Arroyo of the Philippines. Now, if only China were to pressure
N.Korea.........
The papers here said that concern in Japan is very high about the Japanese
nationals abducted by N. Korea twenty years ago. They feel that there is a
chance that Japan might find ways to put pressure on the Koreans over both
issues. Of course, there seems also to be the likelihood that Japan's
constitution might be modified further over the restrictions on Japanese
military forces.
I'm very much afraid that the world is rapidly forgetting the history of the
20th century and, with GWB leading, we are going back to the 19th century -
Robber Barons, extremes of wealth and poverty, overseas empires and all.
Ron
Monday, June 02, 2003 9:25 AM
Re: BACK FROM VACATION
Dear Greenwood,
I have finally finished sorting through my photographs from our vacation and
have attached the first group here. These are from Monument Valley which is a
NAVAJO park, not part of the USA! The reservation is huge, spanning parts of 4
states and is operated by the Navajo Tribe. I hope my pictures give some
impression of the grandeur of the place. Quite the most spectacular area of our
trip. All the pictures here are from Arizona, quite close to Las Vegas, route
#66, etc.
His long report containing many photos were comiled in a separate page. Monument Valley
Ron
2003/6/4 20:37
BACK FROM VACATION
Dear Ron,
Thank you for your splendid photos of Arizona. Picture 303 reminded me of famous movie called "stagecoach" directed by John Ford. After receiving your next photos, probably, I can edit them and make a page for them.
In a trial design of wood gassification for gasturbine power generation, I found a basic equilibrium equation (Eq. No.12) for water and hydrogen and CO was incorrect. I had to do all calculations again. There was no drastic change except water dew point though. Because, probably due to heat and material balance was correct.
I was impressed by your comment of good performance of diesel
engine at low load. I found that gasturbine also shows better performance at low
load. It seems that reason is same. In case of gasoline engine, variable speed
motor engine shows better performance at low load than using it for power
generation. Because speed has to be maintained constant for power generation.
Throttling creating great vacuum condition in cylinder.
I have no idea what octane number, but I think we can forget
it because it may be quite high. I have no data what is the compression ratio of
the engine we are going to use. But I assumed 10 for my analysis calculation. In
your previous mail, you have mentioned that there seems the likelihood
that Japan's constitution might be modified further over the restrictions on
Japanese military forces.
My answer is that public opinion is shifting towards that
direction but still need some time. To cover-up of no finding of Weapon of Mass
Destruction, Mr. Bush is busy in bringing peace for Palestinian people. I am not
sure what happens next. I also share your afraid of our world is rapidly
forgetting the history of the 20th century and going back to the 19th century -
Robber Barons, extremes of wealth and poverty, overseas empires and all. But
this is the main subject of politics, isn't it.
If Mr. Bush is not adequate, I believe American citizens will replace himwith a better person.
Now the World Gas Conference is being held in Tokyo. I visited exhibition hall with my friend and found out a signing ceremony was conducted in public in-between Sakhalin Energy (Shell behind) and Chiyoda on a LNG project. It seems that balance sheet of Chiyoda was greatly improved and is in good shape now. However, I can only enjoy the rise of stock.
Yesterday, I have enjoyed an American movie called "about
shumitzt" played by Jack Nicolson. Fortunately, still my wife is healthy, but if
I loose her, life may be more gloomy.
Congratulating our luck,
Yours truly,
Greenwood
2003/6/4 20:44
Re: BACK FROM VACATION
Dear Ron,
Federal Reserve Board Governor Ben Bernanke is making his personal
recomendations for BoJ. His opinion seems in the same line with Prof. Krugman.
Greenwood
"Some Thoughts on Monetary Policy in Japan"
Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke, Japan Society of Monetary Economics,Tokyo, Japan, May 31, 2003:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2003/20030531/default.htm
"Federal Reserve Board Governor Ben Bernanke outlined his ideas for promoting
Japanese economic recovery. He proposed that the Bank of Japan, instead of
aiming for a zero inflation rate as it does currently, aim instead for a modest
inflation rate of about one percent."
Monday, June 16, 2003 6:16 AM
Subject: VACATION PICTURES #2
Dear Greenwood,
Your paper from Governor Bernanke is most interesting. His comments about the
BOJ "scrap(ing) rules that it has set for itself" and "a heated and unproductive
debate over the issue" of the central bank balance sheet seem very blunt,
especially in a Japanese setting. I wonder how they went down with the BOJ
Mandarins?
In some ways he seems to propose even more than Paul Krugman. Especially in his
distinguishing the various stages of reflation and
endorsement of the proposal to convert the interest rates of government bonds
held by the bank. Much of the paper was full of obscure (to me) banker-ese. I
had never heard of the Principle of Ricardian Equivalence, for example! From my
ignorant viewpoint it seems eminently sensible. I just hope the BOJ agrees and
moves away from their frozen positions.
President Bush continues to ride high in opinion polls. Should Al Qaeda mount a
new attack on the US next spring, or if Bush foments a new war (Iran?) next year
I think he'll win in a landslide next November. There are many Democratic Party
candidates, but none seem to be very promising.
We have not seen Jack Nicholson's new film yet, but did watch the new Roman
Polansky movie "The Pianist". While spotty in places, it's very gripping overall
- reexamining the horrors of Nazi treatment of Jews in East Europe. Not as good
as Schindler's List, but well worth seeing. Death of a spouse is one of life's
worst events. My wife's father died soon after his wife, and my mother did not
survive my father for much longer. Connie and I joke about it, but do not really
want to discuss it. We have taken steps to put our estate in order, however.
I hope to take less time with the next installment of pictures. Until then, with
best regards,
Ron
Thursday, June 19, 2003 5:21 AM
Re: VACATION PICTURES #2
Dear Ron,
Thank you for your second lot of pictures. I have edited a page using some pictures and your notes. As total volume of my site is approaching maximum limit of severs; I have to select pictures.
At last, I have installed windturbine and solar cell for home power generation. I have used a fund prepared for cancelled French trip. Economically, it is not feasible. It costs $5 per kWh. But it is a fun. I enjoyed installation work and subsequent trouble shooting, as it is quite a complex system. I have done what I planned to do after retirement.
It seems that "Principle of Ricardian Equivalence" is well known word for economist. Japanese economist often cites this word when they insist that tax cut does not stimulate economy. I understand Prof. Krugman is saying that Bush's tax cut is a foolish policy too.
My wife said that she enjoyed Roman Polansky movie "The Pianist" very much. I missed it. I was busy in Chemical Equilibrium Calculation for wood gassification at that time.
In July, we are going to visit northern small island west of
Hokkaido.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
2003/6/25 12:55
Solar Panels
Dear Greenwood,
As it happens, I've just seen a reference to a startup company which has some
very interesting approaches to the manufacturing of solar panels.
Their website is:
http://nanosolar.com
Unfortunately they give very little real data, describing their panels only in
the most general terms. This always makes me very suspicious, reminding me of
the startup company I worked with in Boston in 1995-6. While their chemistry was
original and brilliant, there was no way to get the costs down to a competitive
range. At least nanosolar is aware of that problem!
I'd be interested in more details of your system, especially how you have
integrated it into your mains supply (I assume they are interconnected).
However, $5 / kwh is extremely high, which is not encouraging.
I'll try to get you some more photos before your vacation near Hokkaido. I
suppose you will be sailing there and hope you get good weather.
Best regards,
Ron
2003/7/3 8:51
FINAL VACATION PICTURES
Dear Greenwood,
I was able to visit and enjoy your website again. The volume of material you
have been adding is amazing. Thanks you for featuring my photos; I begin to feel
guilty of hogging a limited resource. I especially enjoyed your Movies listing.
We seem to have many unforgettable pictures in common. I like to think the
movies of years ago were better than today's, but I'm afraid we are much more
impressed by films seen when we are younger. I remember older people comparing
the films of the 50's and 60's unfavorably to "the real old films". Once one's
taste is set, newer styles are not well received. I notice that my sons' taste
in music has also largely "set" now they are in their 30's.
Your wind turbine / solar cell set seems very well designed. I much enjoyed your
presentation. I'm sure that new technology will gradually reduce the cost, so
that they become competitive in broader areas. Wind Turbine proponents claim it
would already be competitive in windy areas if subsidized as much as fossil
fuels. Now we get into the political realm. With an Oil Man in the White House,
there is little hope for a fair market in the US for non-fossil fuels.
I've not purchased an MP3 player, mainly to limit the number of formats I'm
already supporting. For general purpose, portable listening I've made a number
of cassettes of favorites - perhaps 40 or 50 cassettes. How do you find the
comparative sound of MP3 vs. Chrome, Dolby Encoded Cassettes? ( I should remark
that frequencies above 10,000 Hz are not a factor in my listening any more, such
is the ravage of time on my hearing!) I'm continuing to re-record my reel to
reel tapes onto CD, but progress is slow. However, most of the most valuable and
vulnerable tapes have been saved.
I hope this gets to you before your trip; if not, you can see it on your return.
May you vacation be enjoyable and safe.
Ron
2003/7/7 23:57
Re: FINAL VACATION PICTURES
Dear Ron,
I have finished editing photo report of your trip. I have to apologize omitting
some photos to accommodate space for coming reports. Wind and solar power
generation is costly, but it gives me safeguards for possible power shortage in
this summer. Most of the Nuclear Power Generation Plants operated by TEPCO were
closed for emergency inspection for hidden cracks in the heart of the reactor.
For me, it is not a serious problem. But hiding something was against law.
I've not purchased an MP3 player too. But I found Sony's PDA have such capability. My daughter showed me latest Apple's MP3 player. It has some Giga bite size built-in flash memory and MP3 encoder. Probably it can carry all music you hear in your lifetime. I found the quality of MP3 is same as the quality of conventional CD. I can enjoy good quality music by connecting my PDA to Bose speaker system.
Last week, we have made a short trip to hotspring where my
bike friend is operating. The web report about it is coming soon. In the next
week, we will depart to Hokkaido. Your WORDS OF MASS DECEPTION html file was
blocked two times. Some times attached html file is blocked. If you know the
original website, I can find it. Stock market in Japan is rising! Why?
Best Regards,
Greenwood
2003/7/13 9:34
2003 MAIL
Dear Greenwood,
You will have noticed that GWB has found his scapegoat for
the Iraq Nuclear Confusion. George Tenet of the CIA admits he was to blame.
There are the usual claims by GWB that he has confidence in Tenet. However,
after a decent interval, I expect Tenet to announce his resignation "to spend
more time with my family" or some other cover story. Then he'll go off to a
well-paid job in the Private Sector - perhaps with Halliburton or Bechtel.
Talking of Bechtel, have you noticed that LNG is again being discussed in the
USA. There are (as in 1973) several proposed projects which will bring in LNG
about 3 years from now. That's exactly what I got into at Fluor in 1973. The
reason is a regularly recurring "spike" in the price of Natural Gas here.
(Production of Ethanol for Gasoline could be a big contributor to the shortage).
I hope our colleagues, who have not retired yet, are able to find useful
employment - I was in LNG for more than 5 years, but never built a facility!
(The departure of the Shah of Iran killed Fluor's big chance - as you may
remember).
I expect this will arrive while you are away, so I'll hope you had an enjoyable
trip.
Best regards,
Ron
2003/7/15 16:09
Re: 2003 MAIL
Dear Ron,
I learned that number of supporters of GWB has already declined.
A month ago, I have met a person from Bechtel in gas Conference held in Tokyo and found he is very confident that many LNG project might be awarded to Bechtel. Yes I still remember that the departure of the Shah of Iran killed Fluor's big chance. JGC was awarded an LPG plant to be build inKangan area.
I am going to depart to a trip to islands North West of
Hokkaido in 30 min. It is not a long trip. I will return in the weekend.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
Re: FINAL VACATION PICTURES
2003/7/26 12:19
Dear Greenwood,
I enjoyed the pictures of Rishiri and Rebun Islands. Coincidentally, my older
son, Bill, and his wife have just returned from holiday in Scotland. I feel the
scenery on your islands is similar to that of the highlands of Scotland. At
least, that's what it looked like when Connie and I were there in the '60's.
Bill reports that the Scots are busy reforesting the highlands - not with Scots
Pines (the original trees) but with another type of pine tree. He didn't know
the reason for the change. They enjoyed extremely unusual weather - hot and
sunny!
Once again I enjoyed surfing through your web site. I continue to be astonished
by how much you put there. It is quite the best maintained site I know of. While
surfing I enjoyed the music of FM 78.9, Shonan Beach. How strange to be
listening, live, to a station on the other side of the world! I believe you can
also listen to all the Los Angeles stations via the internet. The one I listen
to most is a classical music station associated with the University of Southern
California - KUSC, 91.5 FM. You may want to track it down.
I have just been introduced to what must be the most extreme promoter of the
Hydrogen Economy. This is a man called Harry Braun. He has set up a web site to
push his "Phoenix Project" (www.phoenixproject.net). This involves building 12
to 15 MILLION one-MW wind turbines to replace ALL other US energy sources with
wind-generated H2! He thinks this should be done on a war-time schedule of about
5 - 10 years. At a modest $1,000 / kW, I estimate about $15 Trillion capital
costs for the WT's alone. He breezily claims this will "supercharge the economy
and employ millions of Americans". If costs per employee were $100,000 per year,
that'd employ about 25 to 30 millions of us for 5 years, not including those who
were working on infrastructure, etc. A true visionary!
You may get a laugh looking at his site.
Little-by-little there seems to be more good news about the world economy. The
Economist reports that The Japanese real GDP grew 2.6% in the first 1/4 of 2003
compared with 2002. Also they report that both employment and wages there have
recently risen. Not only the Nikkei, but also most world markets have gained in
the last few months. Perhaps this is all an illusion, but I'm beginning to be a
bit more confident and have been slowly moving some more of my savings into the
equity market.
I've finally received a book that I've been waiting for for almost a year (it
was out of print). That is "The Mystery of Capital" by Hernando de Soto, of
Lima, Peru. He has a very interesting theory about "Why Capitalism Triumphs in
the West and Fails Everywhere Else". The book was originally published in 2000.
I'll get back to you about it once I've finished it.
With best regards,
Ron
2003/7/26 14:46
Re: FINAL VACATION PICTURES
Dear Ron,
I agree that Rebun is quite similar to the highlands in Scotland. It also remedied me of Brecon Beacons National Park in Wales. I was very much disappointed to find Forestry Agency in Japan has also started planting pine trees in the grass field. It is not reforesting, because historically, there has been no forest on the island due to strong wind. I think this activity is destroying nature just as agriculture did on the natural forest. In Japanese page of my report, I expressed my opinion. I would like to add this comment in my English page too.
After return form the trip; I was busy in test operation of the Wood Gas Cart. Because of limited time I could make only 4 trial operation. As I reported in my revised page of Wood Gas Cart with many photos, it was revealed that the duration of the gas generation is short and therefore, engine can operate only in limited time. The cause and remedial actions are:
(1) There is a difference between design calculation and
actual performance.---Design calculation assumes complete mixed reactor, but
actual reactor type is moving bed. Therefore, in actual operation, volatile
oxygen tens to leave reactor without forming equilibrium with charcoal. Hence,
small amount of air feed is needed even in gas generation mode. This difference
is inevitable.
(2) Rapid air charge change rate cause quick gas composition change and system
does not enter into stable operation.---Forced fan cause discontinued
gas flow during engine start and abrupt air flow into reactor dilute the gas and
gas is out of combustion rage.----Change to induced fan.
(3) Condensate accumulate in carburetor.----Move condensate accumulator just
below carburetor.
(4) Length of the reactor is a bit short.----Extend internal buffle within the
limit of the reactor vessel.
(5) When wood contains more than 30%. It does not generate gas and form bridge
in the container. ----Use dry wood and cut into small chips.
(6) Heat loss was more than calculated value.----Apply rock wool inside and
outside reactor.
It seems that Harry Braun's business is selling dreams. I have another dreamer of 77-year-old gentleman as a friend. He is an ex-professor of Nuclear Physics for University of Munich. Last night, he called me from Germany where he is staying in summer time, and told me his dream of just replacing glass plates of Australian project into transparent solar panels.
In addition, instead of installing stack, a duct could be installed alongside a cliff of several hundred meters high. Did I introduce you Australian Solar Power Generation Project? They are going to install 1000-meter high draft stack and at the bottom of the stack, the 7km-diameter desert will be covered with glass plate. Warmed air is sucked into the stack and drive 200MW windturbines. Probably, he is going to write a book and publish it.
I was also involved in another project of a dreaming
professor as a technical constant for a NPO. But technically, it is quite a
challenging
project of making 5kW-biomass gasturbine. Actual construction may be complete
early next year.
I didn't know that The Japanese real GDP grew 2.6% in the first 1/4 of 2003. But stock of Chiyoda Corporation is now up to 600 yen, which is 10 times of the lowest times level. I am still keeping the stock and hops continuedrise.
"The Mystery of Capital" is interesting, I wonder whether my
view is similar to his view.
With best wishes,
Greenwood
2003/7/26 15:51
Fire Works
Dear Ron,
When you click black board of the following page, you can see fireworks. If
you click like machine gun, you can see many of them at the same time.
http://village.infoweb.ne.jp/~fwkp7121/ha.html
Greenwood
Sunday, July 27, 2003 4:27 AM
Re: These Weapons of Mass Destruction cannot be displayed
Dear Greenwood,
It's the same, except mine had no Hans Blix line.
Both of your messages came through without problems.
Yesterday, I forgot to mention that I found your Guardian Angel patrol very
interesting. I hope the sneak thief is just a nuisance and not a serious
criminal. Otherwise, it sounds as though Japan's enviable law-abiding society is
becoming Americanized. I do not walk much, but ride my bike about 10 km most
days - riding down the coast to the next town, Hermosa Beach and back again. I
like the bike because it is low impact, like walking and yet allows one to get
the heartbeat elevated as running would do. Through use of the 12 speeds, I am
able to keep the energy level where I prefer, even considering the hills along
the way.
I have mixed feelings about Japan's dispatch of troops to Iraq - as the Japanese
Parliament does. How do you feel about it? I believe the time has come for the
United States to seek a UN resolution which would involve International Control
there. Otherwise, it will be impossible to squash the nagging feeling that oil
was the motive after all. Unless the US does much better at managing the
country, I think the Iraqis will grow increasingly impatient with the
"Occupation". A colleague of Paul Krugman at the NYT, Thomas Friedman, has a
very interesting column there which often comments on Iraq. He feels the US
needs to do much better, soon.
Best regards,
Ron
2003/7/27 10:39
Re: These Weapons of Mass Destruction cannot be displayed
Dear Ron,
Regrettably, Japan's law-abiding society is moving steadily towards Americanized society.
I have a bike, but it is a racer type. It forces me forward-bent posture. It is not kind for my back. I am now investigating recumbent type bike as you may have noticed on my HP.
About 60% of Japanese are against dispatching troops to Iraq. But Mr. Koizumi promised Mr. Bush that he will change law and send troops to Iraq, when he visited US a couple month ago. Probably, it is his belief that Japan should stand beside US as US has world's strongest power.
I quite agree Thomas Friedman's proposal. If United States to
seek a UN resolution, probably Mr. Bush has to admit his misjudgment on WMD.
Best regards,
Greenwood
Tuesday, August 05, 2003 9:09 AM
Re: These Weapons of Mass Destruction cannot be displayed
Dear Greenwood,
I've ridden my racer type bike for many years. I find that
very small changes in the position of handlebars and saddle make a large
difference in comfort. Even a cm or two is significant. Have you experimented
with such adjustments? Over the years I've seen a number of riders on recumbent
bikes. I've not considered them for two reasons. One is that, since I'm
comfortable now, there is no reason to change. A more important reason is that I
ride on public streets. While I avoid heavily traveled roads, I cannot avoid
motor traffic completely. I believe the main reason for car / cyclist collisions
is that the car drivers do not see cyclists. A recumbent bike is much lower and
I'm afraid it would be harder to see.
Today's LA Times has a long article (5000 words) presenting strong evidence that
Iran is almost ready to make atomic bombs. Among other claims is that many
Russian scientists are helping them privately because there is no meaningful
employment for them at reasonable pay scales in Russia.
This reveals the short-sighted nature of GWB's foreign policy. His attack on
Iraq has succeeded in tying up virtually all the available resources of the US
army in an incompetent occupation. As a result, much greater threats from N.
Korea and Iran have to be faced from a position of weakness. He seems to have
achieved something of a victory in that the Koreans have agreed to discussions
with 5 other powers, but I expect these discussions to be very difficult. I can
understand why Japan is sticking close to the US, but wonder how the Chinese and
Russians will act. I suspect they will play very complicated games, jockeying
for their own advantage.
It is hard to see what leverage we have with the Iranians . The LA Times quotes
Hashemi Rafsanjani (President of Iran 1989 - 1997) saying in Dec 2001, "In due
time the Islamic world will have a military nuclear device, and then the
strategy of the West would reach a dead end, since one bomb is enough to destroy
all Israel." You can read the article at
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-nuke4aug04,1,7536926.story?coll=la-home-headlines
Meanwhile, although Bush's popularity is slightly lower than before, he
maintains a commanding lead over any opponent for next year's election and is
raising record amounts of money, while many Democrats are floundering. The
economy is showing a few signs of recovery, although the number of unemployed
people continues to rise. At the moment he looks like a very safe bet to win a
second term.
With best regards,
Ron
Wednesday, August 06, 2003 5:26 AM
Recumbent Bikes
Dear Ron,
I appreciate your idea of adjusting position of handlebars. Although, my saddle position was already at lowest, I could raise handlebars about an inch. Then, I rotated handlebars about 180 degree. Now handle is about 20 cm higher. I felt it is very comfortable. Probably, I can enjoy riding more often. I agree, recumbent bikes would be harder to see. You may need flag or some other thing to catch an eye. Anyway, I may need it when I get old. When I heard news, saying that Secretary of State may not remain in a new government even if Mr. Bush was successful in coming election, I felt it is understandable. But soon he denied it. Very political. I wonder whether Iraqi is like Vietnamese. I understand Mr. Bush learned a lot in Iraq. I think he may not repeat the same mistake in Iran and in N. Korea.
When hot summer stayed over Europe, we had a cool summer. Now
we entered into normal summer. We are soon going to stay in a second house of my
wife's sister in Karuizawa over a week. It is a resort place in summer and 1
hour driving distance to my mother's house.
How is the whether in California.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
2003/8/8 8:47
Re: Recumbent Bikes
Dear Greenwood,
I'm glad your bike is now more comfortable. It has been a very effectiveform of
exercise for me - a good, aerobic workout with low impact on joints.
There is a theory that the Powell rumor was initiated by the rightwing group who
initiated the war on Iraq. They are setting him up to be frozen out after the
election. Powell's wife, who was said to be the reason for his leaving is
reportedly furious. Several of the "chicken hawks" are now vying for Powell's
job: Wolfowitz, Condi Rice and, even Newt Gingrich, who led the Republican House
of Representatives after the Republicans took over in 1996.
Once Powell is out of the way they see their path forward to support Sharon in
Israel more strongly than at present and probably feel ready to attack N. Korea
or Iran.
As is becoming more usual, our weather has been unusual. We started with a very
mild winter. February was the warmest on record here. Then things turned cold.
It was well below average March through June. Suddenly, in July we got very hot
and humid (for CA). This lasted until the end of the month. We are now about
normal.
Bill and Sally had wonderful weather in Scotland a few weeks ago. It was quite
warm and rather humid. The Scots told them how lucky they were not to get the
usual cool, damp weather. Since then I guess Europe has become much hotter
still.
All of this is consistent with the normal theory of Global Warming - not just
hotter, but increasingly variable weather. With our Government doing all it can
to increase consumption of coal, oil and gas, I expect things to deteriorate
even more rapidly. I assume you've read Krugman's columns of Aug 1st and 5th. As
usual, he describes our adventures very well. No doubt you've heard that Arnold
Schwartzenegger announced his candidacy for Governor of CA on a late-night TV
show. Krugman's characterization of us as a Banana Republic is actually
insulting to Banana Republics. The terrible thing is that Arnold will probably
win!
I trust you will have a nice visit to your sister in law's house in Karuizawa.
No doubt it will be cooler there.
Best regards,
Ron
Sunday, August 10, 2003 2:52 AM
Re: Recumbent Bikes
Dear Ron,
I received your email in my sister in law's house in Karuizawa. We arrived here
while typhoon was passing Japan. Whether is very unusual this year. After
typhoon has passed, we had a nice whether, and we have enjoyed 3 hours walk in
the highland of about 2,000m high. Again we have found edelweiss which we saw at
zero meter in Rebun Island a month ago.
Scotland is our future target of travel. But before that, my wife expressed an interest in Holland and Denmark.
TV here is reporting that Mr. Dean of Democratic Party is gaining support from many people in your country. I couldn't read Krugman's columns of Aug 1st and 5th until my return to my home, which is scheduled, on 15th. I appreciate your sending me the definition of Banana Republic.
I found "The Wealth and Poverty of Nations Why Some Are So
Rich and Some So Poor" was well written. It was written by David S. Landes who
is a former professor of Harvard Univ.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
2003/8/11 4:17
R: Recumbent Bikes
Dear Greenwood,
Since the free access will be over when you return, here are the two Krugman columns.
Ron
Sunday, August 17, 2003 6:36 PM
Banana Republic
Dear Ron,
Thank you for sending me two Krugman's columns. It seems that now, US looks
almost like Japan. Political irresponsibility is the key word. When I used to
work in Chiyoda, I had a leader who is told only what he wants to hear and made
bad decisions. We know what happens in a long run. His recent article "Thanks
for the M.R.E.'s" was also very interesting.
Where military privatization policy to private contractors as Kellogg Brown & Root, the Halliburton subsidiary lead to?
While Europe is experiencing extreme hot summer, we are
having very cold whether here. When we stayed in our relative's second house in
Nakakaruizawa, we had to put fire in the fireplace. My boat is going to sit on
the cradle for 5 days waiting rain to stop for bottom painting. When I looked up
my logbook, I found that in most of the day of this year, the wind blew from
northeast.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
2003/8/25 5:51
Re: Banana Republic
Dear Greenwood,
The tendency towards irresponsibility is deeply worrying. It seems also to be
worldwide (with the possible exception of Tony Blair - who is in big trouble as
a result). Nowhere do you see it more than in California. I'm not sure how much
coverage our Governor recall campaign is getting in Japan.
Although only elected last November, the Republican party has
successfully set up a recall vote against Governor Davis. At the moment it seems
it will succeed. Then there is a second vote on the ballot to choose a
successor. There are 135 names on the ballot, so it could be that the next
governor could be elected with only a tiny plurality of the vote. If the
Democratic candidate loses they are already planning a recall campaign against
the winner.
You can see this is lunacy. We could be in for eternal election campaigns with
nobody serving more than a few months. Perhaps you have heard that violent film
actor Arnold Schwarzenegger is favored. As well as him the ballot contains
several other movie stars, including a pornographic film actress, and a host of
crazy people. Wall Street just reduced CA's bond rating almost down to "junk"
status. After the election who knows what will happen to it.
The irresponsibility is bad enough by itself, but also is accompanied by very
cold-headed self interest. It's still possible to explain every move of the Bush
Administration from an oil-man viewpoint. Since his election campaigns are all
financed by such industrial giants, you can identify a simple "bought and
paid-for" relationship. In the meantime, alone among industrial countries, the
US is rapidly becoming a country of fundamentalist Christians. Recent statistics
show that "evangelical" Christian churches have increased by a factor of four
here in the last few decades, while more conservative churches have declined
50%. Also, George Bush himself is "born again". This is a big part in the
success of the Republicans over recent years. A large majority of Americans
think you have to believe in God to be "moral". In France I think on 13% believe
that.
The most outrageous example recently concerns the CHIEF Justice of the Alabama
Supreme Court. In spite of the US Constitution's ban on support of religion by
Government, he installed a 5 - ton monument to the Judeo-Christian 10
Commandments in the middle of his court building. (In the dead of night!) He was
taken to court by the ACLU and others and was told by a Federal Judge to remove
the monument. He defied the court and the monument is still there. The other 8
Justices of the Alabama Supreme Court have opposed him and they have succeeded
in covering the monument. The Chief Justice's supporters have vowed to resist by
physical violence any attempt to remove it from the building.
Such a travesty would not be unusual in Alabama, were it not for the involvement
by the highest Court officer in the State. I wonder if we have more religious
fanatics than the Middle East? Most troubling to me is the trend which continues
very strongly. Perhaps George Bush did not make a mistake after 9/11 when he
spoke about a Crusade - many of his co-religionists want to do just that. On
email I get the occasional hate-letter urging us to "get the Muslims". All these
people are armed to the teeth, by the way. Very troubling. Thanks heavens we
still have organizations like the ACLU (of which I have been a member and
supporter for decades).
I've noticed some of the very bad weather in Japan in our world-wide weather
reports. If I recall correctly, there was over 100 mm of rain in Tokyo one day
last week. The heat waves in Europe are clearly exceptional. Here in the US,
things have not been so extreme, although I did report some unusually hot and
cold weather this year. The difference from normal was much less than in other
parts of the world. I still see consumption of fossil fuels rising rapidly under
pressure from our oil president and growth in countries such as China and India.
Now that GB has almost destroyed the UN and the Kyoto treaty there seems no
alternative. Recently in LA some "Eco-terrorists" destroyed many SUV's and
burned down an SUV dealership.
Toyota is getting very good marks for it's latest Hybrid
Prius from the small number of Americans who are environmentally concerned, but
most people here only want to get bigger and bigger vehicles.
I hope your electricity grid is more reliable than ours and your air
conditioning continues to run,
Best Regards,
Ron
Friday, August 29, 2003 4:01 AM
Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report
Dear Ron,
It seems that Japanese media has no interest in Californian politics. Governor recall in California is only reported in association with Arnold Schwarzenegger.
I think Christian fundamentalist in US is just a reflection of Moslem fundamentalist of which number is now multiplying every where. The behavior of CHIEF Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court reminded me medieval Europe.
I no longer have confidence in Japanese power grid after
seeing 2 times black outs around NY area and the recent one in Southern England.
Therefore,
I have started secure plan for my home as presented in my HP. Gasturbine is too
much challenging. Probably, I might buy second hand small gasoline engine power
generator.
As an engineer, I downloaded 248 page 10Mb pdf file of
Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report. August 2003· from
http://www.caib.us/news/report/default.html
It is worth reading.
In the last week, finally, we had normal summer whether. But whether is quickly becoming cooler. Never the less, we are going to stay in a resort place in mountain area next week. We are weekday members of such facilities and the cost is almost comparable to staying home. We are going to meet my mother and sister there.
My wife suddenly declared to visit Netherlands and Denmark at
the end of this month. With in a week, we had made a reservation for the flight,
hotels and rental car through Internet. I started learning Holland as I have
very limited knowledge about it. I visited there on business only.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
2003/9/12 10:07
Re: Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report
Dear Greenwood,
I trust your vacation in Holland and Denmark is going well. I've always thought
they were very interesting, sane, well-run countries and enjoyed my own visits
there years ago. Would that the US were half as well run.
Kicking and screaming, the Bush administration have had to beg the UN to help
them out. I very much doubt that they will offer enough authority in Iraq to
make many countries do anything. To insult your allies is not the best way to
persuade them to help you!
It now seems certain that the US budget deficit will go above 1/2 a Billion $.
Yet, as you can read in Paul Krugman's column, Bush is trying to get even more
tax cuts. We are a very divided country with the Republicans determined to
reduce Government, and the Democrats trying to prevent that. It's always easier
to I have a "positive" goal, so it's not surprising that the Republicans seems
to be getting the better results in opinion polls. Democrats have a very hard
time explaining their "don't cut" position. They badly need to come up with a
better, more saleable philosophy.
I try to convince younger people that what we are doing is piling up debts that
they will have to pay, but they seem very uninterested in politics. Most of them
have long ago become resigned to having no National Retirement pay (Social
Security). I suppose you could say they "Have it coming", but I'm not quite that
cynical yet.
We've always been fortunate to have very reliable electric power. I can only
recall 1 power failure in 15 to 20 years! I think this may be because we are
close to the El Segundo Refinery. They generate most of the power they need, but
do not use it themselves. For better reliability, they export all their own
power and get power from the grid. Knowing the extreme cost of a power failure
in the refinery, I'm sure Chevron and the Electric utility company have come up
with very secure power. It looks as though we are on this very reliable local
grid.
Most of the portable gasoline electric generators seem to be made by Honda.
These are surprisingly inexpensive here. I'm not sure how many people have them
- I doubt very many; nobody I know has one.
Already the political maneuvering has started over the NE USA power failure. No
doubt our "Statesmen" in Washington will talk the matter to death and nothing
effective will be done. That is exactly what's happened since 1965 when the
first major NE power failure occurred.
Weather all over the world seems to have become normal again. Even Tokyo seems
to have warmed up, I've been seeing many days there over 30 degs. C lately. I
hope your mountain trip had warm weather too and you had a good reunion with
your mother and sister.
We're now less than a month from our Home Brew competition, for which I'm
coordinating the judging. The tempo is picking up and I'll probably be busy the
last week (Sept 21 through 27).
With best regards,
Ron
2003/9/15 16:57
Enigma of Japanese Power
Dear Ron,
After making reservation for coming trip to Holland, I have done nothing except reading book about Holland. As you pointed out, it looks a well-run country.
In addition, I am now reading a book, " The Enigma of Japanese Power" written by a Dutch journalist Mr. Karel van Wolferen. He stayed over 30 years in Japan and carefully observed Japanese power structure. He explains us a real political power structure of Japan, which even Japanese realize it. Comparing it, US status now you are facing is simple and remedial in a short run. Most Japanese support Koizumi because he can do a little bit to better side on this Japanese political structure. Even though his economic policy is poor.
Now we are enjoying hot summer. Tomorrow, I am going to revisit Central Japan Alps with my friends.
I wishes your Home Brew competition goes well. A week ago, I
had hangover after enjoying drinking beer, wine and spirit over 8 hours in a
party held in a former boss's house. Mind your age.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
Friday, September 19, 2003 12:53 PM
MANSIONS OF MANHATTAN BEACH
Couldn't resist sending you the front page of our local rag. Text isclearer in
the Attachment
Ron
2003/9/23 17:49
Re: MANSIONS OF MANHATTAN BEACH
Dear Ron,
Thank you for the cartoon. It brought me back the memory of
Manhattan Beach! I think you have wider spectrum type of houses than we have.
Regrettably,
now we also have security problems here in Seven Mile Beach. We are going to
depart to Holland in September 23th. We will not return until October 10th.
Greenwood
Monday, October 20, 2003 11:29 AM
FOR DEMOCRATS ONLY
(Joke Serial No.118)
Perhaps even some Republicans? Enjoy.
Ron
2003/10/21 20:58
Re: FOR DEMOCRATS ONLY
Dear Ron,
Thank you for well made story. I enjoyed it very much.
Dubya's friend in Japan is going to have an election very soon. I want a change
in our
administration system, but I wonder how many people vote for the change?
We returned from Holland a week ago. I was very much
impressed when I found no power cable run over head except high voltage
transmission line even in country side of Netherland. This gives us a neat
impression. We found many German, French, English, Russian and Chinese tourists
but very few American and Japanese. I rote a long travel notes with some
pictures. A brief translation is coming next week.
Best regards,
Greenwood
2003/10/25 7:30
WALT DISNEY CONCERT HALL
Dear Greenwood,
Just a short note about last night's opening concert. The concert was well
planned; it started with an unaccompanied singer of the National Anthem,
followed by an unaccompanied violin solo. Orchestral pieces followed, ending
with Stravinsky's Rite of Spring. This last piece is a specialty of our
conductor, Esa Pekka Salonen.
The concert was broadcast live by one of our FM radio stations and I taped it
for later re-evaluation. Since I wasn't there, I have to qualify my judgment
since the music was affected by the way it was recorded, the limitations of the
radio broadcast and my own rather compromised audio system. However, here is how
it sounded to me.
First hearing seems to confirm that the sound is much better than then old
concert hall. There is certainly much more bass sound and the music seems much
clearer. I think there is still quite a bit of hall tuning to be done. While
there was plenty of bass, it was rather "tubby" as though middle and lower bass
notes were excessive. Clarity was good, but there seemed too much emphasis on
the middle frequencies so that the music was slightly harsh and lurid. I think
these weaknesses will be amenable to rebalancing.
Commentary in the paper this morning was very favorable. It'll be interesting to
see how other critics view it.
At the end of the concert the audience was obviously very pleased. The three
people most involved - Salonen, the architect Frank Gehry and the acoustician
Yasuhisa Toyota - all appeared together on stage to great applause. They
certainly have achieved much of what they were hoping for.
Connie and I go there for a concert early next month, so I'll be able to give
you an updated review then.
Best regards,
Ron
Sunday, October 26, 2003 7:36 PM
Re: WALT DISNEY CONCERT HALL
Dear Ron,
I have been busy with playing golf and making bike tour in the last few days. After two years absence, I again started playing golf with old schoolmates. It is not good for backache, but I found that I could manage it.
Thank you for photos of houses designed by two architects, Gregory Ain and Frank Lloyd Wright. If Gregory Ain? houses were prefabricated, the cost might be much lower. Frank Lloyd Wright designed most distinguished hotel in Tokyo called Imperial Hotel, but due to deterioration of the construction material, i.e. Ohya Stone, it was demolished and now kept in museum for permanent exhibition.
I have seen a photo of Walt Disney Concert Hall in a newspaper. Yes. It looked exactly like a scene after an earthquake. It reminded me of the Opera House in Sydney. Probably, it may be remembered as epoch making architecture in the history. You have to visit and hear live sound to access the real quality of the hall. I stood in front of the Concertgebouw in Amsterdam, but I missed the chance to listen the sound of it.
I enjoyed very much the well-made story of Circle Flies. May be it is worth translating into Japanese, using county language.
You have once mentioned the stupidity of hydrogen fuel. According to Toyota motor, well to wheel efficiency of hybrid car exceeds that of fuel cell car. In their assessment, gasoline yield from crude oil is set to 88% and hydrogen yield from natural gas is 58%. These figures include transportation loss. Based on this assumption, well to wheel efficiency of hybrid car becomes 32.6% (drive unit efficiency is 37%). Whereas, well to wheel efficiency of fuel cell car is 29% (drive unit efficiency is 50%). For reference, well to wheel efficiency of gasoline engine car is 14.1% (drive unit efficiency is 16%).
My English version of holiday notes in Holland is not yet complete.
Big fire in southern CA is reported here. I assume you are
safe.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
2003/10/28 12:45
WALT DISNEY CONCERT HALL
Dear Greenwood,
The Toyota numbers are interesting. In the literature they handed out at their
presentation on the FCHV in Torrance, CA this month, they put the efficiency of
the Prius hybrid at 32% tank to wheel, yielding only 28% overall, well to wheel.
The other numbers they quoted were as you state. It seems they are in some doubt
about the one number for which they should have the best data - hybrid tank to
wheel!
I take all these numbers with a pinch of salt. In refineries H2 is produced in
many units which also produce other products. Thus, to put an efficiency on H2
production from NG is difficult. Even the assignment of 88% efficiency to
gasoline is questionable. Refineries produce many, many products - how do you
accurately assign efficiency to only one?
The main problems with the vaunted H2 economy remain capital cost (the group of
retired engineers I'm in touch with here estimate 1 - 2 TRILLION $ for
the US), and safety. Who wants the first corner H2 station on his block?
In the meantime the poor US taxpayer is subsidizing US
corporations withbillions of $ chasing a distant mirage.
Ron
Tuesday, October 28, 2003 6:53 PM
Toyota Numbers
Dear Ron,
The figures I cited were from local News Paper here. Apparently, hybrid car
means Prius. Your figure of 32% tank to wheel sound strange for me, asuuming
that tank means fuel tank on the car. I understand it is well to wheel
efficiency, because tank to wheel efficiency of the Prius is 37%. I understand
the definition of 88% is equal to 100%-(crude tarnsportation loss)-(overall
refinery loss) Efficiency on H2 production from NG could be defined as (heating
value of H2 from reforming plant)/heating value of feed NG).
Best Regards,
Greenwood
2003/11/3 11:04
Re: Toyota Numbers
Dear Greenwood,
I've rechecked Toyota's printed report. The 32% is called "Vehicle Efficiency
(tank-to-wheel)". Combined with 88% well-to-tank they claim 28% overall. For
comparison, a regular gasoline vehicle is quoted only at 16% and 14%
respectively. This seems to be about right - with the hybrid getting about
double the mileage of the hybrid. I've attached a spreadsheet of their whole
table.
Shrinkage through a refinery is a very variable figure. Some, refining favorable
crude and making slightly converted products would have very low shrinkage.
Others, such as my local refinery at El Segundo, process very refractory crudes
(such as CA crude) and have many very severe processing units that result in
production of large amounts of gasoline, but at quite high shrinkage rates.
Depending on which refineries you choose to survey, the losses could vary very
widely - I'd guess 2 or 3 or, even 4 to one.
Our old Camry has developed a mysterious misfire which occurs every now and
again. Our regular mechanic and I have been unable to diagnose the problem.
Being now 16 years old (not unusual for a Toyota here) we are wondering whether
to try to fix the problem or just buy a new car.
The other day we visited the Anaheim Auto Show and looked at Toyotas and a few
others. If we get a new one it'll almost surely be a Toyota - we like their
reliability, are used to them and can get a good discount through my son )who
works at the National HQ of Toyota USA). The car will be Connie's, so she will
have the choice. It seems she likes the Camry - they seem to be very careful to
keep the car familiar to owners of previous editions. At the moment Bill, my
son, is getting us detailed information about options and prices.
No decision yet, but I think we'll be trading some time this year.
Best regards,
Ron
2003/11/8 23:10
Re: Toyota Numbers
Dear Ron,
Thank you for your detail data. I took my data from Japanese News Paper, Asahishinbun. The writer wanted to point out that overall performance of Prius is better than that of FCHV. Only difference is tank to wheel efficiency of the Prius. Your figure is 32% and Asahishinbun quoted figure is 37%. Probably the difference comes from different definition of the efficiency. Japanese government defines so called 10/15 mode mileage which is 35.5km/liter(84.8MPG). While US definition of mileage is 60/51/55 MPG city/highway/combined.
My wife want to buy Prius and sell Jeep. I am defending that I seldom use Jeep so that environmental damage is negligible.
Today, a gentleman who was a professor of Nuclear Physics in Univ. of Munich
for over 25 years told me a story about Prius. When his wife visited hair
dresser in Germany a month ago, she heard a chat among men client about buying
Prius for their private use. One of them asked "What if all of us buy Prius, who
buys Daimler". Another man replied "Japanese may wish to buy those cars".
Best Regards,
Greenwood
2003/11/10 20:33
English Translation
Dear Ron,
After long delay, I finally completed brief translation of my HP regarding holyday in Netherland. I also added a set of slides prepared for LNG conference in Perth long time ago.
In those days, I was busy in pushing liberal parties in the national election
in my HP. Still as you may know, Mr. Koizumi will continue his very weak
leadership in our government.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
Re: English Translation
Wednesday, November 12, 2003 11:26 AM
Dear Greenwood,
I visited your site briefly - once again, you have many new things. I'll spend
more time there soon, but your trip to Europe seemed blessed by good weather -
always a question there. Holland's polders are fascinating to me too. I'll also
look for your pictures from Perth.
I read about your election. The paper here said that the opposition, Democratic
party gained enough seats so that Mr. Koizumi has now to rely on two
coalition partners for a parliamentary majority. This was regarded as a
very new situation in Japan; they felt it meant that you could be on the
verge of getting a two-party system, with a realistic chance of "Regime Change"
in the future.
They quoted the opposition as saying that their campaign promised specific
policies and time frames. This was regarded as a big change in
Japan. It sounds very hopeful. I assume you are happy with the results, even
though Mr. Koizumi continues in power.
We heard Stravinsky's "Rite of Spring" in the new Walt Disney Concert Hall
(WDCH) on Friday. The acoustics certainly lived up to their claims. The
orchestra sound was very clear (and very loud - well over 100 musicians for that
piece), and the bass response of the hall was very strong and true. I was
able to hear clearly many musical voices that would have been inaudible in the
old hall.
Other matters were not so good. The auditorium is quite small, which is probably
part of the reason for the good sound. It seems it was hard to put
many seats in it. There are only 2/3 as many as the previous hall. And those
seats are very cramped.
I'm not very tall, but had very little room. My knees were 100mm from the seat
in front. The seat cushion was less than 200mm from the same seat. Even worse,
there was no foot room beneath the seat in front, so your toes were only 100mm
in front of your knees. Therefore knees had to be bent at more than 90 degrees -
very uncomfortable indeed. I heard many patrons complaining. One
wanted his subscription money back.
Other parts of the hall have also suffered. The outside shape was a very
creative design - world famous. Unfortunately, there is little useful space
between this highly unorthodox outer building and the auditorium. All other
elements (and there are many, including two restaurants, some other performance
theatres, offices, meeting rooms, etc) had to be crammed into the
irregular spaces between the two. As a result things are just jammed in
wherever there was room. Much of the space is of such weird shapes that it could
not be used at all.
They are offering free, self-guided tours this month. So, Connie and I will
visit in the daytime and hope to take some pictures. I'm not sure which parts
we'll be allowed to photograph, but will see what we can do.
Best regards,
Ron
2003/11/12 12:59
Re: English Translation
Dear Ron,
I am partially satisfied with the result of our election as we can expect "Regime Change" in the future. We have strong beaurocratic governmental organization, and we feel it is not functioning well. I think only "Regime Change" straitening up those obsolete system. Walt Disney Concert Hall sound great. if you are allowed to take pictures I would like to see. Probably you can take photos of outside look without permission.
After reading following web site and related pages, I modified your sheet as attached. In this calculation, if I assume 26 MPG (City) for gasoline car, Tank-to-Wheel efficiency for Prius becomes 37%. Further analysis showed that Prius recovers 4% power during braking.
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/bestworst.shtml
I am not sure it is correct or not but this is what I can do.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
2003/11/13 18:29
Hybridcar
Dear Ron,
Thank you for an article. I uploaded a new page including illustration for
hybridcar.
Best Regards
Greenwood
Thursday, November 13, 2003 6:29 AM
Re: English Translation
Dear Greenwood,
Thanks for the additional calculations. It's clear that now the Hybrid and the
FCHV are very close. Also, both technologies are still changing. While,
theoretically, the H2 cycle could be slightly better, when economics are taken
into account there can be no sensible reason to develop it. Only political
considerations keep it alive. President Bush has named it the "Freedom Car".
I'm attaching a newspaper article about the US Energy bill, written by members
of two organizations from opposite ends of the political spectrum here - the
Cato Institute is a very conservative think tank, the Sierra Club is a strong
environmental voice. They joined as "odd bedfellows" to write the article about
the Administration's energy bill. Politics are so much in control here that it
looks as though this terrible bill will pass.
Ron
Sent: Saturday, November 29, 2003 1:19 AM
Re: Review of HP
Dear Don,
Thank you for your review of our correspondence. I think your sense on market trend is excellent. You are very kind to your children. I wonder what should I do to my son who is going to marry next year.
I looked in your son's web site, It is the professional's work. I felt a kind of healing power from most of his pictures. No wonder, every artist use his wife as an object.
My Windows ME came back from an ordeal caused after I pulled out USB connector of a new HD. I know XP is more stable but I have to continue using it more 1 or 2 years.
In those few weeks, I was busy in cleaning up unnecessary HTML tugs behind my
HP. I checked source code of almost 1000 pages and deleted redundant tugs.
Regardless those effort, what I could have saved was probably 300kbyte server
space.
Best Regards,
Greenwood
2003/12/13 8:01
Re: Review of HP
Dear Greenwood,
One of the great advantages I got when I replaced my computer was the
increase in memory available. Previously I had been adding HD capacity as you
describe, except I always used internal drives (I ended up with two!) so did not
have a bad USB experience. Now I have ample memory (40 MB) of which I'm using
less than 8. My memory problem is now of paper files. One of my chores now is to
free them up and also to remind myself of what I've got so that I can retrieve
it when I need it. I other words I'm resorting my files and thinning them out.
It's all too human to save things, but never be able to use them again because
you forget you have them. Of course, with your fantastic home page you have a
much larger problem. I don't envy you that.
We are in the early stages of our holiday period. From late November, through
early January we have several holidays and also send greeting cards and presents
to many people, as I'm sure you remember from England and may also practice in
Japan. (Winter solstice occurs worldwide, along with ancient celebrations.
Interesting that people in the southern hemisphere now celebrate in reverse.
What did the indigenous people in South America and Australia do before
colonization?). When you are retired these activities take up an amazing amount
of your time.
As you know, Paul Krugman has been a columnist in the NY Times for some time. He
is now developing something of a notorious reputation. Speculation is that the
NYT thought they'd be getting a laid-back, somewhat academic specialist who'd
explain complicated economic matters. In fact he has turned into a very
controversial political columnist, who has been criticized quite widely for what
some see as a vendetta against George Bush. I have to say that I do find a few
of his comments to be overblown, but mostly agree with him. Many other people
here are very antagonistic towards Krugman.
Politically, this country is increasingly polarized. Interestingly some of the
right wing Republicans are already taking GWB to task for his deficit spending.
I've attached a cartoon and editorial from the John Birch Society - one of the
oldest right wing groups. I'm wondering if he will repeat Richard Nixon's
mistake - Nixon managed to alienate many different groups, so that when the
Watergate business developed there was nobody to defend him.
Quite apart from the war, which is going to be an increasing liability, his
handling of the Federal Budget may well prove his undoing. Already the $ is
setting record lows against the Euro and has lost a very large % against the
Yen. Wall Street is getting nervous that still further declines will restart
inflation and get us right back to where we were in the 70's, except with a much
larger and rapidly growing domestic budget deficit (Like other countries, the US
will start to see many more retirees starting in about 5 years from now). Bush's
stupid antagonizing of Europeans such as France and Germany will just make sure
that they will act to "punish" him as he thinks he can do to them. We could be
back into the 1930's with each country dragging every other country's economy
down. Already all the Democratic presidential candidates are threatening to cut
back on free trade.
One can only hope that cooler heads eventually prevail, but it gets more and
more worrying.
With best regards for the holiday season to you and all your family.
Ron
2003/12/18 16:21
Re: Review of HP
Dear Ron,
I enjoyed very much two jokes you have sent me. I included them into my files.
I considered adding internal drive, but external drive is portable and could be used for moving data between different PCs. Now I am accustomed to USB problems and using it conveniently.
After retirement, I decided to put paper files into envelope of A4 size and write contents on the same side with pencil and keep it in book shelf. I am now thinking to put a serial number on them and make a table in PC showing contents. Retrieval of data may be easier. For more interesting data, I normally input into Filemake file. My HP in Japanese is to make public those data. Every day, I update those data.
Traditionally, even in Japan, seasonal celebration comes after harvesting. During in winter, there are not much enjoyment than family gathering and meeting friends.
I thought that Krugman represent 50%of American opinion but I was surprised
to hear your comment saying, "Many other people here are very antagonistic
towards Krugman". I used his word quite often when I tried to persuade my
friends who hate US in general and especially US dragging Japan into Iraq. I was
very pleased to hear that Saddam was captured and also felt sad that this might
helped Mr. Bush to remain as President another 4 years.
In the last 3 days I was watching TV programs made by French. It was an
excellent documentary about CIA history. They interviewed many ex-CIA men.
They were very frank and spoke many hidden stories about CIA. CIA was made by
President Truman to avoid surprise attack to US such as Pearl Harbor but
surprisingly CIA could not avoid another surprise attack by Osama Bin Laden. Not
only incapability of intelligence activity on such surprise attack but actually
Osama Bin Laden was created by CIA itself in the very beginning.
Now I understand any centrally controlled organization finally became in
capable of adapting to changing environment. Both CIA and KGB failed to predict
fall of Soviet Union. As Jared Diamond tells us in his book "Guns, Germs, and
Steel", answering to the question of "Why China eventually lose their enormous
lead of thousand years to late-starting Europe?" and "Why didn't Chinese ships
proceed around Africa's cape, before Vasco da Gama's own punny ships around Cape
of Good Hope eastward and launched Europe's colonization of East Asia", he
suggest that "The end of China's treasure fleets gives us a clue. They were
suspended as a result of a typical abbreviation of local politics that could
happen anywhere in the world: a power struggle between two factions at Chinese
court. In contrast to those events in China, Chsisopher Columbus could sail from
politically fragmented Europe."
Best Regards,
Greenwood
2003/12/23 11:48
Re: Review of HP
Dear Greenwood,
It is quite amazing how different the political spectrum is here in the US
compared with the rest of the world. Only in narrow strips along the east and
west coast and in a few islands, such as the Chicago area, do many people share
the opinions of most of the rest of the world.
In most of the rest of the country a very different political attitude is
prevalent. This is reflected in the policies of the Bush Administration. It is
characterized by very conservative business attitudes (supporting businesses and
quite anti-union and against government) and religious beliefs that are very
strong and favor fundamentalist Christian views.
George Bush, as you know, is a "born-again" fundamentalist Christian and comes
from Texas in the very heart of what we call "The Bible Belt". He is also very
conservative in political outlook. Needless to say he has the support of the
great majority of big businesses and corporations.
People, such as myself, who live in the coastal enclaves are generally not aware
of the nature of politics in the other, larger parts of the country. I spent
some time on assignment in Tennessee in 1996 and learned something of what most
people there believe. It was a painful learning experience.
At present things are going very well indeed for George Bush. The capture of
Saddam and his various stunts, such as his scuttle in-and-out of Baghdad and the
landing in the deck of the aircraft carrier are very popular. Lately, the
economy has definitely made a turn for the better, so his poll results are very
good. A recent poll on how he is managing the economy give him about 55%
favorable - this is as good as he's had since the very beginning of his term. To
summarize, his conservative, pro-business, anti-government and fundamentalist
Christian views are approved by a strong majority in this country.
He is actually helped with his voters by fights with countries such as France
and Germany. Increasingly Americans are buying his line that any who oppose us
are helping "the terrorists". There is a very jingoistic, nationalistic attitude
in the country - not unlike the feelings in countries before they go to war. If
the rest of the world hates us, that is their problem!
The Democrats have had a very hard time finding an answer to his success. They,
themselves are divided between those who support the invasion of Iraq and those
who oppose it. If all continues to go reasonably well in Iraq and the economy,
the next election will be a landslide for GWB.
Paul Krugman, of course, is quite outspoken about the lies and deceits committed
by the administration. He makes many telling points to those who share his
beliefs. However, he has been a bit shrill; he keeps playing the same tune. I'd
guess that he's well on the left end of the Democratic Party political spectrum.
If GWB commands the loyalty of, say 60% of the voters, then I'd put Krugman
about half way through the other 40% - or at about 20% from the left end of the
spectrum. In other words, more than three quarters of Americans believe he is
more liberal than they are.
I'm afraid that there seems to be no short term solution to this problem. To
prop up the economy, the government is expanding our budget deficit to a degree
that few people understand. I believe this is behind the steady drop in the
value of the $. According to the 19th Dec issue of the Economist magazine, this
may get very much worse if Asian central banks decide to diversify their
reserves (they now hold 70% in $). It quotes the chief economist of one of the
big NY banks as saying that this change could be very sudden, "..a magical
moment"..."Potentially catastrophic" for the $. Not coincidentally, a large and
growing percentage of my portfolio is now in foreign and emerging market funds
and bonds.
After reading people like Jared Diamond describing the fall of great empires by
over-extending themselves, I'm afraid we may be about to do the same. If that
happens the world could be back into some very bad times where everybody strives
only for their selfish advantage. Might would again become right.
Sadly,
Ron
2003/12/27 13:20
FOLLOW-UP ON AMERICAN "PATRIOTS"
Dear Greenwood,
As it happened, I just came across this, which is pretty representative of the
frame of mind of these people. I send it exactly as it was published.
Ron
To: Subject: WHO LIKES US?
Provided by Joe Galloway, author of We Were Soldiers and is an item of possible
interest.
This one is definitely NOT tongue in cheek. Sig, the author, was a teen-aged
Marine who marched and fought as a rifleman to and from the Chosin reservoir in
Korea in 1950. He switched to the Army, and served as a Special Forces officer
in Vietnam. After Vietnam he joined the CIA, and went back to Korea.
He's been there, done that, and has some specific thoughts on countries that
don't "like" us.
If you aren't interested in the ramblings of an old man, please delete now. If
you're still there, pull up a chair and listen.
Is there anyone else out there who's sick and tired of all the polls being taken
in foreign countries as to whether or not they "like" us? The last time I
looked, the word "like" had nothing to do with foreign policy. I prefer
'respect' or 'fear'. They worked for Rome, which civilized and kept the peace in
the known world a hell of a lot longer than our puny two centuries-plus.
I see a left-wing German got elected to office recently by campaigning against
the foreign policy of the United States. Yeah, that's what I want, to be
lectured about war and being a "good neighbor" by a German. Their head honcho
said they wouldn't take part in a war against Iraq. Kind of nice, to see them
taking a pass on a war once in while. Perhaps we needed to have the word "World"
in front of War. I think it's time to bring our boys home from Germany. Outside
of the money we'd save, we'd make the Germans "like" us a lot more, after they
started paying the bills for their own defense.
Last time I checked, France isn't too fond of us either. They sort of liked us
back on June 6th, 1944, though, didn't they? If you don't think so, see how
nicely they take care of the enormous American cemeteries up above the Normandy
beaches. For those of you who've studied history, we also have a few cemeteries
in places like Belleau Woods and Chateau Thierry also. For those of you who
haven't studied it, that was from World War One, the first time Europe screwed
up and we bailed out the French.
That's where the US Marines got the title 'Devil Dogs' or, if you still care
about what the Germans think, "Teufelhunde". I hope I spelled that right; sure
wouldn't want to offend anyone, least of all a German.
Come to think of it, when Europe couldn't take care of their Bosnian problem
recently, guess who had to help out there also. Last time I checked, our kids
are still there. I sort of remember they said they would be out in a year. Gee,
how time flies when you're having fun.
Now we hear that the South Koreans aren't too happy with us either. They "liked"
us a lot better, of course, in June, 1950. It took more than 50,000 Americans
killed in Korea to help give them the lifestyle they currently enjoy, but then
who's counting? I think it's also time to bring the boys home from there. There
are about 37,000 young Americans on the DMZ separating the South Koreans from
their "brothers" up North. Maybe if we leave, they can begin to participate in
the "good life" that North Korea currently enjoys. Uh huh. Sure.
I also understand that a good portion of the Arab/Moslem world now doesn't
"like" us either. Did anyone ever sit down and determine what we would have to
do to get them to like us? Ask them what they would like us to do. Die?.
Commit ritual suicide? Bend over? Maybe we should follow the advice of our
dimwitted, dullest knife in the drawer, Senator Patty Murray, and build more
roads, hospitals, day care centers, and orphanages like Osama bin Laden does.
What with all the orphans Osama has created, the least he can do is build some
places to put them. Senator Stupid says if we would only "emulate" Osama, the
Arab world would love us.
Sorry Patty; in addition to the fact that we already do all of those things
around the world and have been doing them for over sixty years, I don't take
public transportation, and I certainly wouldn't take it with a bomb strapped to
the guy next to me.
Don't get me wrong: I'm not in favor of going to war. Been there, done that.
Several times, in fact. But I think we ought to have some polls in this country
about other countries, and see if we "like" THEM. Problem is, if you listed the
countries, not only wouldn't the average American know if he liked them or not,
he wouldn't be able to find them. If we're supposed to worry about them, how
about them worrying about us?
We were nice to the North Koreans in 1994, as we followed the policies of
Neville Clinton. And it seemed to work; they didn't re-start nuclear weapons
program for a whole year or so. In the meantime, we fed them when they were
starving, and put oil in their stoves when they were freezing.
In a recent visit to Norway, I engaged in a really fun debate with my cousin's
son, a student at a Norwegian University. I was lectured to by this thankless
squirt about the American "Empire", and scolded about dropping the atomic bomb
on the Japanese. I reminded him that empires usually keep the stuff they take;
we don't, and back in 1945 most Norwegians thought dropping ANY kind of bomb on
Germany or Japan was a good idea. I also reminded him that my uncle, his
grandfather, and others in our family spent a significant time in Sachsenhausen
concentration camp, courtesy of the Germans, and they didn't all survive. I
further reminded him that if it wasn't for the "American Empire" he would
probably be speaking German or Russian.
Sorry about the rambling, but I just took an unofficial poll here at our house,
and we don't seem to like anyone.
Happy New Year.
2003/12/31 19:08
Re: FOLLOW-UP ON AMERICAN "PATRIOTS"
Dear Ron,
How time flies fast. Tomorrow is in 2004.
In those days, I was reading many books. Some about Richard Feynman, John Von Neumann and Robert S. McNamara. I was trying to learn how to write my own memoirs.
I was also chasing why China's treasure fleet didn't proceed around Africa's
southern cape westward and colonize Europe as written by Jared Diamond in his
book "Guns, Germs, and Steel". After reading several books about Chinese history
written by Japanese historian, I found a very interesting book, "1421 The Year
China Discovered The World "written by Gavin Menzies who is a retired British
submarine captain. His findings in the last 10 years seems to prove that the
same Chinese fleet actually circumnavigated the world and made a World Atlas.
But after the death of a Emperor who ordered to make such map, his weak
successor decided to close door to the world and ordered to destroy those maps.
Luckily a Venetian born sailor who sailed together in the Chinese fleet brought
back a copy of the world map made by Chinese and transferred to Portugal. He
claims that all explorer such as Christopher Clumbus, Vasco da Gama and
Ferdinand Magellan were guided by the copy of those secret maps. Also in Japan a
copy of such map made in 1402 was found. Mr. Gavin Menzies is operating a web
site. Please review following site.
www.1421.tv
Good luck to Mr. Bush and let's hope coming year is better. Any way, Japanese
government learned a lot from past history and will never leave America alone
regardless Japanese public opinion. I was a bit surprised to know that my school
mate in high school was nominated as a Judge in Supreme Court.
I wish a Happy New Year for you too.
Greenwood
December 31, 2003