Peak Oil

In 1998, Colin Campbell estimated ultimate recoverable oil reserves is 1,800 billions of bbl.

CGES's estimate is 2,500 billions of bbl. as shown bellow.

While US Geological Survey's estimate is 3,000billions of bbl.

Mr. Greenwood made an oil depletion estimate using Logistic model for two cases of ultimate recoverable oil reserves, i.e. 1,800 billions of bbl case and 3,000billions of bbl case.

ｄN/dt ＝ r₀　K　ｆ　 (1 - ｆ)

df/dt = r₀　ｆ　 (1 - ｆ)

where ｄN/dt is annual production (billions of bbl), K is ultimate recoverable oil reserves (billions of barrels) and f=N/K, r₀, N₀ are initial values.

Peak oil comes at 2005 when K=1.8 trillions of barrels.

Peak oil comes at 2030 when K=3 trillions of barrels.

Annual production

September 18, 2005

Rev. December 10, 2007