民主党得票率 民主党 選挙前 失業率 実質経済成長率 インフレ率 (spline) 政権 1889 1890 4.0 5.2 -2.0 5.4 2.4 -1.6 1892 51.7 51.7 R 3.0 7.5 -3.7 50.4 11.7 -6.8 2.2 49.2 18.4 -4.6 -6.3 48.3 13.7 9.7 -1.3 1896 47.8 47.8 D 14.4 -3.8 -2.7 47.8 14.5 7.5 0.5 47.9 12.4 0.3 3.2 47.7 6.5 7.4 3.2 1900 46.8 46.8 R 5.0 0.9 4.8 45.0 4.0 9.5 -0.8 42.7 3.7 -1.1 3.3 40.8 3.9 3.0 1.2 1904 40.0 40.0 R 5.4 -3.2 1.2 40.7 4.3 5.4 2.0 42.4 1.7 9.5 2.7 44.3 2.8 -0.3 4.2 1908 45.5 45.5 R 8.0 -10.0 -0.8 45.6 5.1 10.0 3.3 45.1 5.9 0.7 2.9 44.7 6.7 0.9 -16.1 1912 45.3 45.3 R 4.6 4.1 23.3 47.3 4.3 -1.1 0.6 49.9 7.9 -6.2 1.0 51.7 8.5 -2.3 3.3 1916 51.7 51.7 D 5.1 6.4 12.4 49.0 4.6 -0.6 23.4 44.4 1.4 12.4 16.7 39.0 1.4 -4.8 2.3 1920 34.1 34.1 D 5.2 -6.1 14.0 30.6 11.7 -10.5 -14.8 28.7 6.7 14.3 -5.3 28.1 2.4 10.2 2.5 1924 28.8 28.8 R 5.0 -2.2 -1.2 30.6 3.2 6.8 1.9 33.3 1.8 4.5 0.4 36.7 3.3 -1.5 -2.4 1928 40.8 40.8 R 4.2 -0.6 0.8 45.3 3.2 5.5 0.4 49.8 8.7 -10.3 -3.3 54.0 15.9 -8.4 -9.1 1932 57.4 57.4 R 23.6 -14.4 -11.2 59.8 24.9 -2.6 -2.1 61.0 21.7 7.1 8.5 61.4 20.1 8.2 1.9 1936 60.8 60.8 D 16.9 12.8 0.7 59.5 14.3 4.0 4.8 57.8 19.0 -4.8 -2.4 56.1 17.2 6.7 -0.7 1940 54.7 54.7 D 14.6 6.6 2.5 54.0 9.9 14.3 8.2 53.7 4.7 13.4 10.6 53.6 1.9 14.4 4.5 1944 53.4 53.4 D 1.2 6.2 2.0 52.8 19.0 -2.5 2.3 52.0 3.9 -15.5 15.7 50.9 3.9 -2.8 13.2 1948 49.6 49.6 D 3.8 3.9 6.8 48.3 5.9 0.0 -0.4 46.9 5.3 8.5 1.7 45.6 3.3 10.3 5.0 1952 44.4 44.4 D 3.0 3.9 1.6 43.3 2.9 4.0 1.6 42.4 5.5 -1.3 1.5 42.0 4.4 5.6 3.4 1956 42.0 42.0 R 4.1 2.1 3.3 42.7 4.3 1.7 3.6 44.2 6.8 -0.8 2.1 46.5 5.5 5.8 2.4 1960 49.7 49.7 R 5.5 2.2 1.6 53.8 6.7 2.6 1.0 57.8 5.5 5.3 2.2 60.6 5.7 4.1 1.6 1964 61.1 61.1 D 5.2 5.3 1.5 58.5 4.5 5.8 2.7 53.8 3.8 5.8 3.6 48.1 3.8 2.9 2.6 1968 42.7 42.7 D 3.6 4.1 5.0 38.8 3.5 2.4 5.6 36.5 4.9 -0.3 5.5 36.1 5.9 2.8 5.7 1972 37.5 37.5 R 5.6 5.0 4.7 40.7 4.9 5.2 6.5 44.7 5.6 -0.5 9.1 48.3 8.5 -1.3 9.8 1976 50.1 50.1 R 7.7 4.9 6.4 49.4 7.1 4.7 6.7 47.0 6.1 5.3 7.3 43.8 5.8 2.5 8.9 1980 41.1 41.1 D 7.2 -0.2 9.0 39.7 7.6 1.9 9.7 39.4 9.7 -2.5 6.4 40.0 9.6 3.6 3.9 1984 41.0 41.0 R 7.5 6.8 3.7 42.2 7.2 3.4 3.0 43.4 7.0 2.7 2.6 44.7 6.2 3.7 3.2 1988 46.0 46.0 R 5.5 4.4 3.3 5.3 3.0 4.1 備考 D=Democratic R=Republican 1916年以前の民主党得票率は Fair,The Effect of Economic Events on Votes For President,"Review of Economics and Statistics",1978,15, 2,pp159-173.より。 さらに、Statistical Abstract of the United States,U.S.Department of Commerce BUREAU OF THE CENSUS と 週刊東洋経済「経済統計年鑑1990」 から作成した。