Image Database 19
World Primary
Energy Substitution
by
Marchetti and
Nakicenovic
made in 96/10/16
World primary energy substitution. Shares of primary energy sources in global
consumption. Smooth lines represent model calculation and jagged lines are historical
data. ''Solfus" is a term employed to describe a major new energy technology, for
example solar or fusion (Marchetti and Nakicenovic, 1979;
Nakicenovic, 1990). It shows that the diffusion of new sources of energy is a very long
process Lasting many decades. Replacement of other infrastructures, such as that of
transport systems is also a long process.
Source: Nebojsa Nakicenovic "Energy Strategies for Mitigating Global Change' IIASA
Jan. '92.
wood 1850
coal 1920
oil 1970
natural gas 2030
nuclear
solfus(solar and or fusion)Actual consumption data very well fit with a curve predicted
by Logistic model proposed by Belgian mathematician, Pierre Verhulst in 1838.
In December 2007, Mr. Greenwood updated the diagram.
Greenwood Diagram made in 2007
Rev. April 1, 2010